Antarctica’s Silent Takeover: How China and Russia Are Weaponizing the Ice While the West Sleeps

Antarctica remains one of the few regions on Earth without exclusive national ownership, theoretically open to all states to engage in activities aligned with their interests and strategies. Historically, it has served as a field of influence for major global powers—particularly those with ambitious scientific agendas. China and Russia, long intrigued by this unclaimed territory, have already established numerous research stations across the frozen continent.
Of course, Western powers—particularly the United States and European countries—are also present. Each state brings its own agenda to Antarctica. Yet, the scale and intensity of China and Russia’s engagement point beyond mere academic or climatic curiosity. Their expansive presence raises more strategic questions—military and geopolitical ones—that cannot be overlooked.

Geopolitical Value of Antarctica
According to the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, any mineral exploitation in the region is officially prohibited. Presently, around 30 countries are involved in the governance of this icy expanse. Therefore, those seeking influence here must look beyond resource extraction—at least, officially.
For China and Russia, the significance of Antarctica lies in more than just its untouched wilderness; its proximity to the Drake Passage in southern South America gives it a maritime monitoring advantage. By reinforcing their research outposts and refurbishing aging facilities, both powers are not just advancing their scientific capabilities—they're also securing future strategic leverage.
China, notably, is building a dedicated satellite ground station there, another layer in its fast-growing network of space infrastructure.

Beyond Science: Strategic Objectives Take the Ice
Antarctica offers far more than icy data points. In the event of future regional conflicts, the continent could turn into a prized military asset. Despite the 1959 Treaty’s ambiguous restrictions on mining, the region is believed to harbor significant natural reserves—potential war spoils that could tip global conflicts in favor of whichever bloc secures them.
China and Russia have clearly decided not to wait. Their growing presence is a preemptive move, while Western powers appear too preoccupied elsewhere to respond meaningfully. Russia, in particular, sees its expanding Antarctic footprint as an essential step toward solidifying territorial claims it traces back to an alleged 1820 discovery of the continent.

The Treaty Dilemma: Loopholes and Legal Gray Zones
What limits expansion in Antarctica—at least on paper—are two key frameworks: the 1959 Antarctic Treaty and the 1991 Madrid Protocol, which ban mineral exploitation and marine pollution. But like most multilateral agreements crafted in the Cold War haze, these too leave much room for interpretation. China and Russia have found in this vagueness a window of opportunity—one they aim to widen by reshaping the rules to serve their long-term national interests.
To do this, they must first persuade or sideline the existing stakeholders—something both powers have proven adept at elsewhere.

The Price of American Neglect
With its legal constraints and Donald Trump’s penchant for focusing elsewhere, the U.S. has largely stepped back from Antarctic engagement. This absenteeism has not gone unnoticed. Western security analysts are sounding the alarm: if Washington continues to forgo a coherent strategy, the region will fall squarely under the sway of China and Russia.
In the medium term, this retreat could question America’s credibility as a global superpower. Meanwhile, revisionist states—unbothered by the "rules-based order"—are growing bolder.
Antarctica’s untapped strategic and material wealth could prove immensely beneficial to the U.S., but under current priorities, these benefits are drifting eastward. Trump's administration seems far more concerned with East and West Asia, leaving the southernmost front wide open.

Final Thoughts
China and Russia’s presence in Antarctica is more than scientific exploration—it’s a calculated geopolitical move. If Western powers continue to approach the region with indifference, they risk losing an untouched, resource-rich expanse to the Eastern bloc. Global power competition is no longer confined to the conventional battlefields. The poles—both North and South—are now integral theaters of strategic influence. In the chessboard of international power, ignoring the polar squares may well cost the West the game.

*Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Amirali Yeganeh