Boycott, Betrayal, Ballots: Iraq’s Explosive 2025 Election Showdown

As Iraq’s political parties and movements prepare for the sixth parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11, 2025, the country’s political landscape is witnessing complex developments, the emergence of new coalitions, and potential legal challenges that could significantly impact this pivotal event.

A New Power Structure within the Shiite Coordination Framework
Shiite coalitions are redefining their political relations ahead of the 2025 elections. The Shiite Coordination Framework, which played a key role in government formation in recent years, is now facing internal divisions. On one side, the coalition led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani is expanding by attracting new allies, while on the other, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the Dawa Party, is attempting to weaken new contenders by pushing for electoral law reforms.

As the election date approaches (November 11, 2025), both camps have launched extensive campaigns to recruit allies and win the support of political figures and parties. Media reports suggest that al-Sudani is leveraging his position as Prime Minister and governmental connections to solidify alliances with figures like Hadi al-Amiri (leader of the Badr Organization) and Falih al-Fayyadh (head of the Popular Mobilization Forces) to bolster his base among Shiite constituencies and related groups.

Meanwhile, Nouri al-Maliki, relying on his broad political network and long-standing experience, seeks to maintain his traditional influence as a central decision-maker among Shiite forces. Reports indicate that he has secured the support of certain members of the Coordination Framework, armed factions, and even some Sunni figures. Simultaneously, he is working to revise the electoral law—possibly to limit the influence of his rival, al-Sudani.

Formation of the “Construction and Development” Coalition Led by Al-Sudani
A major pre-election development is the formation of a new political alliance: the “Construction and Development” coalition led by Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani. Including figures such as Falih al-Fayyadh, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, former PMF commander Ahmed al-Assadi, and Sunni politician Mohammed al-Sayhoud, the coalition reflects al-Sudani’s ambition to expand his political base beyond the Shiite bloc.

This coalition focuses on economic development, anti-corruption efforts, and strengthening Iraq’s national sovereignty. It could potentially rival the traditional Shiite alliances. However, critics warn that the ideological diversity within the coalition may lead to internal discord.

Intra-Shiite Rivalry: Al-Sudani vs. Nouri Al-Maliki
The rivalry between al-Sudani and Nouri al-Maliki is one of the central dynamics of Iraq’s 2025 elections. Maliki, who lost in the last elections, is now pushing for reforms in the electoral law to favor party control. His proposal advocates a return to a closed-list system, giving political parties greater control over selecting candidates and undermining independent contenders.

Critics argue that such reforms, by reducing transparency and weakening competition, could deepen Iraq’s crisis of legitimacy. Al-Sudani and his allies, on the other hand, insist on retaining the open-list system to ensure a more competitive environment.

The Sunni and Kurdish Positions
Among Sunni parties, the strong political comeback of ousted Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi stands out. After being removed by a federal court ruling, al-Halbousi is reorganizing his forces and forming new coalitions to secure significant seats in Sunni-majority provinces. However, doubts remain about the unity of the previously established “Unified Sunni Leadership Alliance” (Tahalluf al-Qiyada al-Sunni al-Muwahhad), and a splintering into multiple Sunni lists appears likely.
In the Kurdistan Region, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) remain key players in the national elections. Nonetheless, the “New Generation Movement” led by Shaswar Abdulwahid is gaining momentum with its reformist platform targeting the demands of the younger generation and improving livelihoods. This movement could emerge as a third force in Kurdish politics.

Muqtada al-Sadr’s Boycott: A Challenge to Legitimacy and Voter Turnout
Perhaps the most significant factor shaping the 2025 Iraqi elections is the position of Muqtada al-Sadr. After failing to form a majority government in 2021, Sadr withdrew his bloc from parliament and stepped back from the political scene. In March 2025, despite initially urging supporters to register, he officially announced his boycott of the elections, citing entrenched corruption, lack of genuine reforms, and systemic dysfunction.

This boycott by one of Iraq’s most influential socio-political forces could drastically reduce voter turnout and undermine the legitimacy of the elections. Sadr’s strong support base, particularly in Shiite-majority central and southern regions, has traditionally been decisive in shaping electoral outcomes. Their absence could lower participation rates significantly.

This also presents an opportunity for other Shiite groups, particularly those led by al-Sudani and al-Maliki, to gain more seats—though winning in a low-turnout election may pose a legitimacy challenge.

Potential Postponement and Electoral Commission Challenges
Adding to the political complexity is the debate over electoral law reform, which not only affects coalition strategies but also the election timeline. If the new law is passed, Iraq’s electoral commission would need to revise its schedule, potentially delaying the elections by at least six months.

This delay is intended to give prospective candidates time to resign from their current posts and prepare for the race. In the interim, the current government may function as a “caretaker” government with limited authority over budgetary and strategic decisions. Any postponement could disrupt party planning and impact national political stability.

Conclusion
Iraq’s 2025 elections are unfolding in an atmosphere of uncertainty and multi-layered rivalries. The emergence of new alliances within the Shiite Coordination Framework—particularly al-Sudani’s coalition—and its contest with the traditional bloc led by Nouri al-Maliki is redefining the Shiite political scene.

Meanwhile, attempts to reform the electoral law and Muqtada al-Sadr’s firm stance on boycotting the elections due to corruption and lack of reform represent two major challenges. Iraq’s political future and stability depend on how these challenges are managed, the level of public participation, and whether political forces can reach a sustainable post-election agreement.

It remains to be seen whether Iraqi institutions can hold free and credible elections on schedule—or if the mounting challenges will push the country into another phase of political instability.

*Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Mohammad Saleh Ghorbani