Drone Invasion over Poland Exposes NATO’s Cracks against Russia

The recent incident involving the violation of Poland’s airspace by drones allegedly launched from Russia, which caused the temporary shutdown of an airport in Poland and triggered engagement of its defense systems, has effectively become a serious test for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in evaluating its deterrence capability. Although some of these drones were shot down, the core issue remains: NATO’s defense structure is not prepared to effectively counter even cheap drone attacks.


Following the incident, Warsaw collected the drone wreckage for investigation and requested the activation of Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, bringing the matter to the level of formal consultation among members. While Article 4 does not mandate military action and is purely consultative, Russia’s activities in Eastern Europe have exposed NATO’s weaknesses, leaving the alliance’s response confined to consultative meetings rather than operational measures.


According to many experts, the recent incident is one of Russia’s most provocative tests to measure NATO’s defensive capacity, sparking deep concern among Eastern European countries. In this scenario, Moscow not only gauges NATO’s military capability but also undermines the alliance’s political and psychological deterrence. Eastern European states—on the front line of confrontation with Russia—are now more worried than ever about NATO’s capacity to respond. Strategic divisions among NATO leaders, such as the differences between Trump and Tusk (the U.S. president and Poland’s prime minister), reinforce the perception that the alliance lacks a unified response to Russia’s gray-zone tactics. At the political level, doubts over whether the attacks were deliberate or accidental have weakened any decisive and immediate reaction, exposing fractures and vulnerabilities within NATO. Trump described the incident as “probably a mistake,” while Tusk, citing evidence, insisted it was intentional. This divergence within NATO sends a clear message to Moscow: a lack of unity and decisiveness, even at the highest levels of Western decision-making. For Russia, this represents a major advantage in continuing gray-zone warfare.


In response, NATO announced a new plan titled “Eastern Sentinel” to strengthen air defense and counter drone threats in Eastern Europe—an initiative modeled on the “Baltic Guardian” program launched in recent years to protect undersea infrastructure in the Baltic. While this plan demonstrates NATO’s awareness and readiness on the surface, in practice it is more symbolic than substantive and does not resolve the alliance’s core vulnerabilities. Russia, through the use of cheap and abundant drone operations, has exposed NATO’s weaknesses. If “Eastern Sentinel” remains purely symbolic, it will not only fail to be effective but will also confirm NATO’s continued vulnerability to modern Russian threats, sending a message of weakness from the heart of Europe.

Meanwhile, Moscow has denied responsibility for the airspace violation, with some Kremlin-affiliated media even attempting to blame Ukraine. This propaganda campaign is part of Russia’s information and psychological warfare aimed at undermining NATO unity. It shows that Moscow does not view the violation of Polish airspace as a military act, but rather as a tool to test Western military strength and exploit it for propaganda purposes. Analysts argue that this incident has exposed NATO’s relative weakness against Russian drone threats and underscores the need for enhanced hybrid technological defenses. They believe that existing defense systems, largely designed to counter missiles and conventional threats, are ineffective against mass drone attacks. Moreover, the cost of NATO’s defensive interceptors far exceeds the production and deployment costs of Russia’s drones. Analysts insist that NATO must move toward hybrid technological defense—including cheap counter-drone systems, laser technologies, and electronic warfare—otherwise, it will lack effective power against Russia’s new-generation threats.


In conclusion, the violation of Eastern Europe’s airspace and security by Russian drones has revealed NATO’s fragility against Moscow. Divergent views among Western leaders, limited consultative responses, and the threat posed by cheap drones weaken the alliance’s cohesion. While mechanisms such as Article 4 consultations and programs like “Eastern Sentinel” may take steps toward strengthening defense, experts argue that without technological transformation and hybrid counter-drone systems, NATO cannot achieve real deterrence. Until then, and without stronger NATO measures against the Kremlin, Russia will likely continue to gain ground and exploit the alliance’s weaknesses for propaganda purposes.


Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Navid Daneshvar


1- https://apnews.com/article/poland-russia-drones-jamming-ukraine-incursion-nato-27b1aeed542604c91386df1fbe4463c7

2- https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-dismisses-polish-statements-drones-its-airspace-nothing-new-2025-09-11/

3- https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/sep/12/poland-russia-drones-ukraine-war-latest-news-europe-live

4- https://cepa.org/article/attack-on-poland-russias-debris-still-falling

5- https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/09/21/nato-explores-new-drone-technology-as-pandoras-box-opened-in-ukraine-russia-war