Inside Merz's Meltdown: The Coalition Cracks, Migrant Fears, and AfD Rise Threatening to Break Europe's Engine

Almost one hundred days ago, Friedrich Merz rose to the chancellorship of Germany, leading the fragile black-red coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. This followed the snap February elections, triggered by the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s coalition amid economic turmoil and mounting migration pressures. Merz’s victory was clouded by an unprecedented legitimacy crisis: he fell six votes short in the first parliamentary ballot for chancellor, securing the post only in the second round—an historic event that exposed cracks within his allies and foretold the government’s fragility from the very beginning. This weak start set the tone of instability for his first hundred days, a period now under scrutiny for unfulfilled promises and mounting challenges.


The government’s performance in delivering on its core pledges has been poor, eroding public trust. Merz emphasized tax cuts to stimulate growth, a strong economic revival, and tighter migration control—yet none have been realized meaningfully. Only 29% of citizens are satisfied with the government’s performance, a sharp drop compared to predecessors such as Olaf Scholz or Angela Merkel at the same stage. Polls show that two-thirds of Germans view the cabinet as untrustworthy, citing incompetence and internal disputes.

Economic growth, Merz’s central campaign promise, has faltered. In Q2 2025, Germany’s economy contracted by 0.1%, worsened by falling car exports to the U.S. under Trump’s tariff threats. Retreats in energy policy have further aggravated the outlook: despite promises of cheaper energy, prices remain high. Merz has backed away from reconsidering nuclear energy and ruled out a return—despite campaign rhetoric suggesting otherwise—leaving industries in uncertainty and complicating the energy transition.


Coalition dynamics have deepened these struggles. Frictions between the CDU/CSU and SPD have sustained the expensive policies of the previous government. Cooperation with the SPD has enforced net-zero targets and high welfare spending, frustrating Merz’s conservative base, which seeks austerity. SPD resistance has stymied reforms, sparking clashes and a breakdown in talks with labor unions. These domestic failures contrast sharply with Merz’s more decisive foreign policy moves, such as bolstering support for Ukraine, creating a dissonance that has fueled widespread disillusionment.

Economists criticize the lack of structural reforms, especially in pensions and debt, warning of long-term fiscal risks. Migration and security add further volatility: asylum requests have halved since January 2025—from over 140,000 in early 2024 to around 70,000—thanks to tougher border controls and increased deportations. Yet SPD opposition and court rulings have blocked harsher measures such as mass deportations or suspending family reunification. Meanwhile, violent crimes linked to migrants, including knife attacks, have shaped public perception, fanning anti-migrant sentiment, even though overall crime rates tied to migration have not risen significantly. High-profile incidents in Hamburg and Aschaffenburg have amplified public calls for tough action, but the coalition deadlock has left Merz ineffective here too.


Politically, Merz faces fierce competition from the far-right AfD, which has surged to 26% in the polls, overtaking the CDU at 24%—a historic reversal threatening mainstream conservatism. While Merz has categorically ruled out coalition with the AfD, branding his party as a bulwark against extremism, he has failed to curb its rise amid public discontent. Mounting tensions have also triggered crackdowns on free expression. The government has prosecuted hundreds under hate-speech laws—seen by many as overreach—for online criticism of Merz and his policies. Coalition plans to combat disinformation have raised further concerns.
Polls reveal that 84% of Germans fear restrictions on their ability to speak freely, highlighting human rights concerns, intensifying political polarization, and fueling fears of authoritarian drift.

In sum, Merz’s government is grappling with deep crises: declining legitimacy, economic stagnation, coalition fractures, unresolved migration issues, the rise of the far right, and the erosion of civil liberties. If this trajectory continues, the government risks collapse, possibly triggering fresh elections. Such instability in Europe’s largest economy could ripple across the EU, undermining fiscal unity, weakening support for Ukraine, and emboldening populist forces continent-wide. Unless Merz drastically changes course, Germany—and by extension Europe—may be headed into a turbulent era of uncertainty.


*Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Amin Goudarzvand