Orbán's High-Stakes Gambit: How Holding Ukraine's EU Future Hostage Serves Hungary's Power Play

The position of the Hungarian government, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, regarding Ukraine's membership in the European Union is a complex combination of declared concerns and hidden strategic objectives. Although Budapest justifies this position based on defending the rights of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine, in reality, thisش policy is a multi-purpose tool to strengthen Hungary's domestic and international standing. This approach also acts as a negotiating lever against Brussels, a justification for maintaining close relations with Russia, and a barrier against the expansion of Western influence in Eastern Europe. Analyzing this position shows that Hungary is playing a high-risk game that, if it fails, will incur heavy costs for it.

One of the main pillars of Hungary's opposition is the defense of the rights of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine. Approximately 150,000 ethnic Hungarians live in the Zakarpattia region of Ukraine, and Budapest accuses Kyiv of systematically violating their linguistic, educational, and cultural rights. Since 2017, Ukrainian language laws have made Ukrainian the primary language of instruction in schools, which Hungary views as a discriminatory action against minorities. For Hungary, this issue is not merely symbolic but is considered a legal and political responsibility towards its citizens outside its borders. Therefore, by using its veto power in the Union, Budapest is trying to exert the necessary pressure to amend or repeal these laws to guarantee practical support for the cultural and linguistic identity of Hungarians. Opposition to Ukraine's membership in this framework has become a tool for obtaining specific concessions in the area of minority rights.

The Orbán government also argues that Ukraine's membership in the European Union will place an unbearable financial burden on Hungary. According to estimates by Hungarian government institutions, Hungary's share of the costs of rebuilding Ukraine over the next five years could reach 48 billion euros, equivalent to 68% of Hungary's annual budget in 2023. Concerns have also been raised about unfair competition from Ukrainian wheat with domestic agricultural products and increased social costs due to potential migration.

These figures, although alarming, are often exaggerated and have not been confirmed by independent sources. Furthermore, these arguments overlook the long-term benefits of Ukraine's membership, such as regional stability, the opening of new markets, and the reduction of security threats. In reality, this economic narrative is designed more to stir anti-immigration and anti-EU sentiments among the Hungarian people than to serve as a realistic analysis.

Additionally, Hungary's geopolitical orientation plays a key role in its opposition to Ukraine's EU membership. Unlike many other EU members, Budapest has maintained closer relations, particularly in the energy sector, with Moscow. The Hungarian economy is highly dependent on Russian gas and oil, and the Orbán government has consistently sought to reduce the impact of the Union's sanctions against Russia on its country. From Budapest's perspective, admitting Ukraine into the Union would severely increase tensions between Brussels and Moscow and push the Union towards direct confrontation with Russia. Such a situation could intensify the energy crisis, increase economic threats, and further undermine regional stability. Therefore, opposing Ukraine's membership is, in practice, considered an effort to protect energy security and avoid broader conflicts for Hungary.

The Hungarian government claims that Ukraine's membership, given its widespread corruption, weak institutions, and ongoing war, will lead to the weakening of the European Union's internal solidarity. However, this argument has an obvious contradiction: while Hungary itself is subject to EU financial sanctions due to violations of democratic principles and the rule of law, it is now using the Union's solidarity as an excuse to oppose its expansion.

In fact, by using its veto power in the European Council, Hungary is trying to change the Union's decision-making system in its favor. By blocking Ukraine's path, Budapest is making specific demands from Brussels, such as accelerating the membership process for the Western Balkans or increasing funding for domestic projects. This approach undermines the principles of the European Union and shows that instead of maintaining solidarity, Hungary is seeking exceptionalism and exerting unilateral influence. Although ostensibly they emphasize that this is to preserve the Union's principles and prevent its institutional paralysis, calling themselves the guardian of the European Union.

Ultimately, opposition to Ukraine's membership serves as a bargaining tool for Hungary within the Union. By creating obstacles to the progress of Ukraine's case, Budapest increases its bargaining power in negotiations with Brussels. This strategy allows the Orbán government to demand more financial aid, exemptions from certain Union policies, or flexibility in disputes related to the rule of law conditionality. In other words, opposition to Ukraine's membership has become a trump card for increasing Hungary's influence in the Union's decision-making processes. The pattern of using the veto to gain concessions has been repeated by Budapest many times in recent years, and the Ukraine issue is no exception.

Hungary's opposition to Ukraine's EU membership is rooted in a complex combination of domestic concerns, economic calculations, geopolitical considerations, and bargaining strategies. Defending the rights of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine is part of Orbán's political identity-building at home. Preventing the redirection of EU financial resources towards Kyiv protects national economic interests. Avoiding escalation of tensions with Russia considers energy security and regional calm. Warning about the threat to the Union's cohesion presents Hungary's position as that of a Union supporter. And finally, using this opposition as a pressure tool strengthens Hungary's position in European negotiations.

However, this strategy, rather than aiming to permanently prevent Ukraine's membership, seeks to gain the most concessions from the parties involved in the war and its consequences. But this game is not without risk. If Hungary miscalculates or insists too much on its opposition, the likelihood of its isolation within the Union and the loss of financial and political support increases. Therefore, although Budapest's position is a logical reflection of its national and strategic interests, its success depends on skillful execution. Otherwise, this strategy, instead of being a trump card, will become a heavy burden for Hungary.

Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Amin Mahdavi

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