Peace Without the People: How the Quad’s Sudan Strategy Is Doomed to Fail

The Sudan Quad Peace Initiative — jointly led by the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates in September 2025 — marks the latest attempt to contain a civil war that has ravaged the country since April 2023. The plan envisions a three-month humanitarian ceasefire to enable aid deliveries, followed by a permanent truce and the transfer of power to a civilian government within nine months.

The four nations involved — known collectively as the “Quad” — hold the most influence over both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Yet, the same actors they seek to control are driving one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with famine spreading and tens of thousands killed.

Conflicting Agendas within the Quad

The civil war that erupted in April 2023 still claims dozens of lives each day. None of the previous peace efforts have succeeded — largely because the main players pursue competing interests.
Egypt, with its deep historical and security ties to the Sudanese army, has openly backed General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. On the other side, the UAE has been accused — by UN experts and investigative bodies — of indirectly supplying funds and weapons to the RSF. This divide has turned peace talks into a covert power struggle between two rival camps rather than a genuine mediation effort.

Sudan’s military accuses Abu Dhabi of fueling the RSF’s war machine — claims echoed by American lawmakers and analysts, though repeatedly denied by the Emiratis. Evidence, however, suggests otherwise: Colombian mercenaries, UAE-made weapons, and cargo flights from Emirati bases to neighboring countries all point to Abu Dhabi’s hand in the conflict.

Analysts say the UAE’s deep involvement stems from a mix of motives — expanding its political clout, curbing Saudi influence, exploiting Sudan’s vast natural resources, and suppressing political Islam, which it views as a threat to its own stability.

Excluding Sudanese Voices

The Quad framework has another fatal flaw: it sidelines the Sudanese themselves. Both ordinary citizens and the African Union have been largely excluded from the talks, undermining the plan’s legitimacy from the outset. History shows that peace deals without local ownership rarely survive beyond paper.

Civil society groups — the same forces that led the 2019 revolution toppling Omar al-Bashir — have been pushed to the margins once again. This exclusion risks repeating the failed Jeddah Agreement of 2023. Any peace process that does not engage these actors is doomed, for Sudan’s military has never succeeded in establishing a stable government on its own.

Instead of being recognized as key political stakeholders, civil groups have been relegated to a “humanitarian” role — observers rather than decision-makers in shaping Sudan’s post-war future.

On the Ground: Chaos and Fragmentation

Since April 2023, Sudan’s war has morphed into a humanitarian nightmare. What began as a power struggle between the SAF and RSF has descended into mass displacement, systematic atrocities, and alleged war crimes. More than 13 of Sudan’s 18 states are engulfed in conflict.

Government collapse in Darfur, Kordofan, and parts of Khartoum has led to the rise of local militias and parallel administrations, pushing the country toward de facto fragmentation. Under such conditions, even a limited ceasefire would require international observers and broad domestic consensus — both of which are absent.

In the latest escalation, RSF forces seized the strategic city of El-Fasher in western Sudan, massacring its residents even as indirect peace talks were under way.

The Bottom Line

Without the genuine participation of Sudanese actors — military, civilian, tribal, and local — the Quad plan is destined to join the long list of failed international peace initiatives. Rather than ending the war, it risks becoming yet another example of well-intentioned diplomacy detached from ground realities.

Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Mohammad Saleh Ghorbani

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-saudi-arabia-uae-egypt-propose-roadmap-sudan-peace-2025-09-12
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/17/icj-hears-sudan-case-accusing-uae-complicity-genocide
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/17/two-years-into-sudans-war-where-is-its-civil-society
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/power-struggle-sudan