Putin's Nuclear Dress Rehearsal: Is "Zapad-2025" a Prelude to Escalation or a Desperate Show of Force?

In recent days, concurrent with the joint Russia-Belarus "Zapad-2025" exercise at the Mulino training ground (Nizhny Novgorod region), Vladimir Putin, while visiting this joint exercise, donned combat gear and, with a handgun in hand, closely observed drills involving the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. This presence and its surrounding context, alongside an emphasis on concepts such as safeguarding sovereignty, territorial integrity, and countering aggression, could be interpreted as a demonstration of military readiness and Russia's seriousness in defending its interests, serving as a political message to Western parties.


In this joint exercise, Vladimir Putin sought to portray himself not merely as a political leader but as a commander-in-chief present on the field, demonstrating full authority and providing on-the-ground leadership. This move helps boost the morale of the armed forces and legitimize Russia's wartime policies. This action could lead to the normalization of extraordinary circumstances within Russia, further steering society towards accepting a militaristic environment. Particularly in a situation where the president appeared in the uniform of the commander-in-chief at the exercise field, it contributed to the militarization of society and the normalization of extraordinary conditions for citizens.


Some Western analysts have stated that Putin's symbolic exercises are part of the Kremlin's strategy for the psychological mobilization of society and preparing and maintaining their mindset for confrontation with the West within the framework of a new Cold War. Even since the Zapad exercise was held jointly, it sent a clear message to Minsk that the Russia-Belarus union remains a defensive, security, stable, and strategic alliance. Likewise, for Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, this joint exercise signifies renewed confirmation of the Kremlin's support for his government. Some Russian as well as international news agencies have also noted that joint military cooperation between the two countries within the framework of the Union State and under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has been strengthened.

It is worth noting that this exercise (Zapad-2025) was a clear deterrent message to NATO and the West, demonstrating comprehensive resilience against pressures and threats, somewhat reminiscent of the confrontational tone of the Cold War era. Similar to when the former Soviet Union displayed its power and deterrence through massive military maneuvers. In fact, Russia's choice of Belarus for the exercise carries a geopolitical concept, indicative of a new Cold War where Russia has activated a strong bastion on its western borders, the points closest to NATO. Furthermore, many news agencies have warned and stated that these exercises in Russia's western regions involve the use of intermediate-range missiles, nuclear-capable bombers, and a very strong navy.


This exercise also indicated that Russia is trying to send a message of "full military readiness." Right here, we recall that the Belarusian state news agency, Belta, reported Lukashenko's statements as follows: "We absolutely do not intend to threaten anyone with this exercise, but they (the West) know very well that we are practicing all scenarios in this exercise; from firing conventional light weapons to nuclear warheads."


Although predominantly Western analysts remain concerned about the real objectives of this exercise and its messages to the West and NATO, its conduct included invitations for military representatives and observers from over 23 countries, including representatives from the United States and NATO member states, and was practically held at the highest level. Alongside this, it must be noted that the presence of American representatives marks their first official attendance at such an event on Russian soil or that of its allies since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict and is assessed as an indication of Washington's efforts to improve relations with Moscow.


However, on the other hand, among the negative international consequences of this exercise in Western public opinion is the transmission of a message of direct threat, also leading to increased concerns about the escalation of conflict on NATO's borders. In contrast, this exercise sends a clear message to the world, and especially the West, of Russia's precise and strategic cohesion in defending its national security and that of its allies (Belarus).

In conclusion, it is worth noting that the holding of the joint Zapad-2025 exercise, alongside displaying Putin's authority and his ability to lead in extraordinary circumstances, represents a policy of strengthening militarism within society. While emphasizing the consolidation of relations with traditional allies like Belarus and the sustainability of the two countries' strategic defensive and security alliance, it was a deterrent message to NATO and the West—indeed, a reminder of the confrontational tone of the Cold War era and a sign of the gates opening to a new Cold War. It indicates that Putin is trying to send a message of "full military readiness" to the West and their allies by showcasing tactical nuclear weapons.


Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Navid Daneshvar

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-shows-off-conventional-nuclear-military-drills-raises-125609958

2 https://www.euronews.com/2025/09/12/russia-flexes-its-military-muscles-at-natos-doorstep-days-after-sending-drones-to-poland

3 https://defence24.com/geopolitics/maneuvers-zapad-2025-kicks-off-meaning-russian-politics-is-all-about-a-show-of-force

4 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/16/india-joined-belarus-russia-war-games-amid-signs-of-rift-with-us

5 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-military-confirms-it-sent-observers-russia-belarus-war-games-2025-09-16/

6 https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-nuclear-ukraine-drills-nato-oreshnik-18e3f12c7648fd1c42aaab7266eba15e