Russia’s Energy War: Ukraine Faces Its Harshest Winter Yet

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is on the brink of a severe crisis this coming winter, exacerbated by ongoing conflicts with Russia since 2022. These tensions have imposed enormous material and human costs on the Ukrainian government. A significant portion of Ukraine’s electricity and energy production capacity has been severely compromised. Russia has cleverly exploited energy as a new battlefield over the past few years, systematically targeting Ukraine’s gas, electricity, and heating networks, weakening the country and destabilizing its energy system.

Following the widespread destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in targeted Russian attacks during the summer of 2024, residents faced severe electricity shortages. Despite imports from neighboring Western countries, Ukraine’s domestic electricity production was short by approximately 2.3 gigawatts compared to a peak demand of 12 gigawatts. This shortfall, caused by damage to over half of the country’s voltage conversion equipment and power transmission lines, forced Ukraine’s state electricity operator to gradually reduce supply, limiting electricity in some areas to just a few hours per day.

While some reports suggest outages were limited to specific regions for only a few hours, other sources indicate reinforced protections and new infrastructure were being built to shield critical power transmission networks. Repairs and upgrades to existing facilities were also reported.

In addition, Russia’s strategy to wear down Kyiv has severely affected district heating and natural gas infrastructure. Since 2022, 18 large combined heat and power (CHP) plants, along with over 800 boilers, have been damaged or destroyed, and gas storage facilities have been targeted.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has received little tangible support from Western allies due to economic pressures in Europe, raising concerns among Ukrainian officials and experts. Kharkiv’s mayor warned that the upcoming winter would be the toughest since the war began. For the fourth consecutive winter, Russia appears poised to plunge Ukraine into darkness and freezing temperatures as part of its energy war.

In recent weeks, Russian attacks have targeted not only Ukraine’s electricity grid but also gas and logistical infrastructure. At least two transformer stations in Kharkiv, the Sredniodniprovskaya hydroelectric plant, a DTEK thermal power station, and multiple gas supply centers have been severely damaged. These strikes have destroyed about 60% of Ukraine’s gas production capacity, marking the largest and most extensive attacks on the country’s gas infrastructure since the war began.

At the same time, Ukraine faces severe human resource shortages and extreme vulnerability due to infrastructure destruction, leaving many citizens exposed to cold and energy scarcity. Analysts believe Ukrainian officials have privately warned President Volodymyr Zelensky of the potential for “war fatigue,” yet the prospect of change seems slim ahead of a harsh winter.

This crisis also poses challenges for the West, casting doubt on the sustainability of energy and financial support for Ukraine. Analysts warn that funding and development loans from the European Union could also have financial repercussions for the donor countries. In the U.S., public support for energy sanctions against Russia has declined from 56% to 44%, even if these sanctions drive up domestic prices. In the UK, facing one of the most severe cost-of-living crises in decades, backing Ukraine has become a social dilemma. In France and Germany, political situations are increasingly worrisome; French politician Marine Le Pen has called for sanctions to be lifted, arguing that they harm her country more than Russia.

In conclusion, Ukraine faces a critical winter under Russia’s energy war strategy. The destruction of gas and electricity infrastructure and human resource erosion threatens to create the most severe winter in the country’s history. The absence of sufficient energy will impact the population far more tangibly than a lack of weapons or military equipment.

Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Navid Daneshvar


https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-10-17/eve-a-heating-season-russia-targets-weak-links-ukraines-energy
https://www.iea.org/reports/ukraines-energy-security-and-the-coming-winter/ukraines-energy-system-under-attack
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/kharkiv-preparing-for-its-hardest-winter-1759756288.html
https://tomorrowsaffairs.com/ukraine-is-bracing-for-the-harshest-winter-since-2022
https://time.com/6234344/winter-ukraine-how-to-support
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/ukraine/eib-supports-ukraine’s-energy-security-€300-million-loan-naftogaz_en
https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20220803-french-far-right-leader-le-pen-calls-for-an-end-to-sanctions-against-russia