Turkey’s Rise from the Shadows: How the Ukraine War Turned Ankara into a Power Player

When the war between Russia and Ukraine erupted in 2022, global geopolitics began shifting at lightning speed. One of the biggest beneficiaries of this new order has been Turkey — a country that, before the war, didn’t hold much weight in Europe’s strategic calculations. But thanks to Ankara’s shrewd diplomacy, Turkey has firmly reminded both Europe and Russia of its importance.

For decades, Europe’s reliance on the United States and NATO seemed like an unshakable security guarantee. But that illusion began to crack in 2016, during Donald Trump’s first term in the White House, when Washington’s commitments started to look uncertain. The 2022 Russia–Ukraine war then served as a wake-up call — the slap in the face that forced Europe to realize how vulnerable it really was.

In response, European countries began ramping up their military capabilities and reconsidering the geopolitical balance around them. This reevaluation naturally brought Turkey into sharper focus. With its strategic position, extensive relations with both warring sides, and a smart attempt to stay neutral enough to mediate, Turkey carved out a respected political role for itself.

Meanwhile, Europe started exploring ways to reform its own defense and security systems. Realizing their weaknesses in production and logistics, European leaders sought to become more self-reliant — even though NATO remains the backbone of their defense architecture. True autonomy from the U.S. will take decades, but one of the most practical steps in that direction is to cooperate with regional powers like Turkey.

As an emerging force in the defense industry, Turkey has built an impressive military export market, earning over $5 billion from successful deployments of its systems in conflicts from Libya to Ukraine. For Europe — now eager to diversify its defense partners — Turkey offers both technological value and logistical strength.

Through its active diplomacy during the war, Ankara positioned itself as an indispensable player. It brokered the grain export deal, managed tensions in the Black Sea with minimal fallout, and even facilitated prisoner exchanges. These achievements have made Turkey a reliable intermediary — one capable of maintaining dialogue when others can’t.

In essence, Turkey has leveraged its geopolitical weight masterfully to expand both its political influence and its international status. Balancing delicately between East and West, Ankara has portrayed itself as a valuable, independent actor. The Ukraine war became the perfect stage for Turkey to showcase this ambition.

This self-confidence is now bleeding into other areas of Turkish policy. Erdogan’s government increasingly sees itself as a global player — one whose decisions can reshape regional power dynamics. Europe, once dismissive of Turkey’s importance, is now forced to acknowledge it.

Ultimately, Turkey’s neo-Ottoman aspirations — to reclaim the grandeur and reach of its imperial past — are no longer a distant dream. Ironically, Europe, which once united to dismantle the Ottoman Empire, now finds itself needing Turkey’s help to survive the new wave of security, military, and political turbulence. And Turkey, in turn, is using this moment to strengthen its hand — transforming itself from a regional partner into a key strategic power with global ambitions.

Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Amin Mahdavi

https://politicstoday.org/turkish-defense-industry-at-the-global-super-league/
https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Mediating-Conflicts