Israel’s Fatal Mistake: How Assassinations Strengthened Iran’s Ironclad Deterrence

The Wall Street Journal's latest article on the appointment of new Iranian military commanders offers a thought-provoking analysis.

The author aims to examine the implications of the elimination of the IRGC’s first and second-tier leadership.

These commanders came from the younger, grassroots generation of the Islamic Revolution—men who had faced two existential challenges:

First, domestic unrest and widespread assassinations by the Mojahedin-e Khalq terrorist group;
Second, the war against Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist army.

Ultimately, this generation overcame both traumas. And from the depths of these twin crises, Iran's missile development doctrine was born.

The Wall Street Journal continues by noting that these commanders had held their posts for many years. They were well known, and much of their strategic behavior could be anticipated.

But now, Israel is facing a new class of commanders—individuals whose military thinking and strategic approach remain opaque, at least in the short term.

These are leaders who have lived through the trauma of seeing key military and human assets eliminated overnight.

Many military analysts now believe that the new commanders may present numerous arguments to Iran’s Supreme Leader to reconsider the fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons.

Amid the deep uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear program following U.S. and Israeli strikes, the country’s shift toward becoming a nuclear power no longer seems far-fetched.

Only time will tell how history will remember these days:
As the rise of the lions—or the flight of phoenixes from the ashes?