The Vance Calculus: How a Trump Presidency Could Redefine "Maximum Pressure" – And How Iran Might Respond

*The Vance Calculus: How a Trump Presidency Could Redefine "Maximum Pressure" – And How Iran Might Respond*

In recent days, rumors of Donald Trump’s death have dominated global social media headlines.

While many attribute these rumors to Trump’s theatrical persona and his craving for the spotlight, others, pointing to his serious vascular condition, consider them entirely plausible.

But if Trump were gone, who would take charge of America until a new election is held?

J.D. Vance, his vice president, is a figure both intriguing and worth close attention.

Once one of Trump’s harshest critics, he has now become one of his most loyal allies.

Vance enjoys popularity among realists in American politics while maintaining legitimacy among Republican hardliners.

This combination makes him a politician with a hybrid approach toward America’s adversaries including Iran.

His policies could be summarized as:
Intensifying economic pressure and sanctions,
Expanding covert cyber and intelligence operations,
Leaning more heavily on Israel and Arab states to contain Iran,
Avoiding all-out war but staying prepared to deliver limited, decisive strikes.

All of this suggests that he may not differ much from Trump.

Perhaps the most important distinction is that Vance may be even more likely than Trump to push Iran toward pursuing nuclear weapons.