A Long Game: Hezbollah's Calculated Strike on Israel's Intelligence HQs

Lebanon's Hezbollah has carried out the first stage of its retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr on Arbaeen Day. This operation was successfully completed with a high level of military effectiveness. The operation not only triggered the mass exodus of Israeli settlers from the northern occupied Palestine into central regions, exacerbating Israel's already dire internal crisis, but it also built a strategic buffer zone along Lebanon’s southern border—one of Hezbollah's primary objectives. At the same time, Israel has made futile attempts to undermine Hezbollah by assassinating its commanders and attacking its strongholds in Syria. On the other hand, Hezbollah's strike on Israel's intelligence headquarters on Arbaeen was intended to break down Israel's security apparatus, thereby establishing a more manageable long-term war of attrition. Taking all of this into account, Hezbollah has undeniably achieved its strategic objectives during this initial phase, significantly limiting Israel's military deterrence.