Aliyev Beating War Drums: Is Another Catastrophic War Looming in the South Caucasus?
Aliyev Beating War Drums: Is Another Catastrophic War Looming in the South Caucasus?
The recent escalation of conflict near the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan has once again thrust the Caucasus region into the spotlight of global attention. To comprehensively understand the nature of their actions, it is imperative to provide a detailed analysis of the ongoing disputes between the two countries, followed by an in-depth examination of the interests and motivations of regional actors.
At the heart of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan lies the longstanding disagreement over sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region encompassing 4,400 square kilometers. While Nagorno-Karabakh is predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians, it was historically part of Soviet Azerbaijan. The roots of this dispute can be traced back to 1987, when the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh initiated a campaign to secede from Azerbaijan and reunite with Armenia. The dispute remained unresolved until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which led to a two-year war resulting in a decisive military victory for Armenia in the early 1990s.
By the time a ceasefire was established in May 1994, the conflict had exacted a devastating toll, with over 25,000 lives lost and more than one million people forcibly displaced from their homes. The majority of Nagorno-Karabakh fell under the control of Armenian forces, culminating in the establishment of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. However, it is crucial to note that this entity has not been recognized by any country, including Armenia, to this day. Furthermore, Armenian forces occupied seven surrounding areas that were once part of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, resulting in the internal displacement of Azerbaijani populations.
Since 1992, negotiations mediated by the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe under the Minsk Group have sought to find a resolution to the conflict. Notably, France, Russia, and the United States have been at the forefront of these efforts since 1997. However, in recent years, negotiations have been sidelined due to increased military spending and deteriorating security conditions along the approximately 200-kilometer line of contact. Ceasefire violations have escalated since 2014, culminating in a four-day war in April 2016, during which Azerbaijan managed to recapture some small areas, marking the first significant change in the disputed territory since 1994.
In 2018, the new Armenian administration led by Nikol Pashinyan assumed power. Initial diplomatic overtures between Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev generated tentative pledges to prepare their respective populations for peace. Regrettably, these measures were not effectively implemented, and widespread violence resumed in 2020. The clashes along the internationally recognized border of Armenia and Azerbaijan quickly escalated into a full-scale war along the contact line surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. With substantial support from Turkey, Azerbaijan managed to regain control of most of the territory it had lost to Armenian forces in the early 1990s, including approximately one-third of the originally disputed territory in Nagorno-Karabakh.
To fully comprehend the recent developments in the South Caucasus, it is essential to consider the interests and motivations of neighboring countries. The utilization and exploitation of regional trade corridors emerge as critical concerns for these neighboring nations, as they are vital for economic growth and prosperity. Consequently, regional peace and stability become imperative prerequisites for the successful utilization of these corridors. The perspectives of countries in the region regarding the use of these corridors can be summarized as follows:
Turkey, driven by its aspirations for increased trade with Central Asian countries that share linguistic ties, is making concerted efforts to establish the Turan Corridor in the Caucasus region. This corridor, passing through Azerbaijan, aims to facilitate the movement of goods from Central Asia to Europe via the blue corridor. However, the implementation of this plan would impede Iran and Russia from reaping the benefits of trade corridors, thereby inciting resistance from these two countries.
Iran, driven by its commitment to the preservation of international borders, actively supports Armenia, both directly and indirectly, as a means to balance the military capabilities of Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Zangezur Corridor, situated on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, holds immense strategic importance for Iran. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is resolute in its opposition to the closure or redirection of this corridor, as it would sever Iran's land trade with Europe.
Russia, currently embroiled in the conflict in Ukraine, adopts a cautious policy towards countries in the Caucasus region, seeking stability on its southern borders. This policy has generated unease among Armenian officials, who consider Russia a strategic ally and expect increased support. Faced with this critical situation, the Armenian Prime Minister, who also exhibits pro-Western tendencies, is actively seeking alliances beyond the region to bolster his country's position. Recognizing the opportunity, the United States has swiftly engaged with Russia, proposing a military exercise with Armenia to leverage the complexities of the situation.
In summary, Azerbaijan, in collaboration with Turkey, aims to establish a corridor from the Georgian border through Azerbaijan, necessitating the occupation of a portion of the Armenian border. This plan has precipitated sporadic conflicts in the Caucasus region in recent days. Given the intricacies of the situation, the region requires a more robust presence from Russia and Iran, as they stand as the primary beneficiaries of developments in the Caucasus. Moreover, effective management strategies are imperative to accommodate the intentions and interests of these two countries. The strategic patience of Iran and Russia is wearing thin, coinciding with Armenia's Western-oriented actions and Azerbaijan's strategic maneuvers, including the involvement of the Zionist regime (Israel), which may potentially trigger aggressive actions by these two countries.
