All Roads Do Not Lead to Rome: Italy's Experience with China's Belt and Road Initiative

By: A. Mahdavi

Italy, a country that has faced economic challenges for over a decade, found itself in a unique position during the global financial crisis of 2008. While its European counterparts struggled to provide adequate assistance, China saw an opportunity to expand economic relations with Italy, ultimately becoming an important partner for the country. This article delves into Italy's decision to join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2019, the subsequent outcomes, and the evolving geopolitical considerations that have shaped Italy's stance.

Italy's Strategic Alignment with China:

During Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Rome in 2019, Italy became the first Group of Seven (G7) country to join the BRI, a massive global infrastructure project. Italy's historical ties to the ancient Silk Road, coupled with its status as the European country with the largest Chinese population, played a significant role in its decision to align with China's initiative. This move raised eyebrows in the United States and Europe, seen as a geopolitical shift and a perceived betrayal of Western alliances.

Expectations and Realities of the BRI:

Italy's decision to participate in the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was driven by its desire to attract investments, expand exports to the Chinese market, and position itself as a strategic partner. However, the anticipated economic benefits did not materialize as expected. While Italy's exports to China experienced modest growth, China's exports to Italy saw a significant surge. Moreover, China's investments in other non-BRI European countries far exceeded its investments in Italy. These realities raised doubts about the promised economic advantages of the initiative.

Italy's Reassessment and Transatlantic Convergence:

As the BRI failed to deliver the expected economic benefits, Italy began reassessing its membership. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni openly acknowledged that joining the BRI had been a "big mistake" and expressed concerns about potential security risks. This shift in Italy's stance reflects a broader transatlantic convergence among European nations, aiming to reduce dependence on China while maintaining productive interactions and bolstering bargaining power with traditional partners.

Geopolitical Implications and a Cautious Approach:

Italy's decision to reverse its course regarding the BRI should be viewed within the context of the evolving geopolitical reality faced by Europe. The growing skepticism about China's intentions, coupled with its close cooperation with Russia in the BRI, has prompted European nations to approach the initiative with caution. Italy's withdrawal from the BRI signifies a shared European concern, emphasizing the need for alternative economic agreements that allow for continued relations with Beijing.

China's Response and Future Implications:

The response of Beijing to Italy's withdrawal from the BRI remains uncertain. While Italy has expressed its desire to maintain good relations with China through alternative economic agreements, the consequences of this decision are yet to be determined. The future dynamics between China and Europe will play a crucial role in shaping the potential consequences, including any punitive measures that may arise.

Italy's experience with the BRI serves as a valuable lesson for other countries considering participation in China's ambitious infrastructure initiative. It highlights the importance of conducting thorough assessments of potential economic benefits and geopolitical implications before making such decisions. Italy's reversal also underscores the growing transatlantic convergence on the challenges posed by China, as Europe seeks to strike a balance between productive engagement and safeguarding its interests in an evolving global landscape.