America's Self-Serving Diplomacy: A Stark Warning for Taiwan

By: A. Mahdavi

In recent years, the United States' foreign policy has been characterized by a series of strategic recalibrations, often at the expense of its allies. The recent commencement of U.S.-Russia negotiations concerning Ukraine exemplifies this trend, raising profound concerns not only for Ukraine but also for other U.S. allies, notably Taiwan.

Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine's security has ostensibly been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. However, the evolving dynamics of international relations and the prospect of a U.S.-Russia rapprochement suggest that nations like Taiwan should exercise caution. The United States has demonstrated a propensity to prioritize its narrow interests over those of its allies, potentially compromising the security of smaller nations such as Ukraine—and by extension, Taiwan.

The recent U.S.-Russia summit on Ukraine has been widely regarded as a significant shift in the international order. Traditionally, the United States has positioned itself as a champion of democratic nations, albeit somewhat deceptively. However, the Ukraine crisis has revealed the real nature of American foreign policy. The U.S. response to the invasion of Ukraine—a combination of initial strong rhetoric, military assistance, and subsequent diplomatic concessions—highlights that U.S. policy is exclusively driven by interests, with commitments to allies being secondary. The agreement with Russia illustrates the United States' willingness to pursue strategic objectives, even if it means compromising the security of smaller nations like Ukraine.

Taiwan must closely monitor developments in Ukraine and recognize the inherent risks of relying on U.S. assurances. The situation in Ukraine serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting that U.S. support is neither unconditional nor permanent. Thus, Taiwan, like Ukraine, faces an existential threat from an assertive neighbor intent on annexation.

Taiwan's primary dependence on the United States for military and political support could place it in a precarious position should U.S. priorities shift. Just as the United States has historically prioritized broader strategic interests over Ukraine's security, it may adopt a similar stance toward Taiwan, especially if negotiations with China are deemed more critical. This is a matter of grave concern, as the United States has a history of making strategic decisions that favor its interests, occasionally at the expense of its allies.

If China intensifies its pressure on Taiwan and the United States faces domestic challenges or seeks other geopolitical concessions, Taiwan could be perceived as a bargaining chip. The United States may be inclined to compromise on Taiwan's sovereignty in exchange for concessions from Beijing, such as economic or trade benefits. Such a betrayal would leave Taiwan vulnerable, mirroring the situation Ukraine faces due to shifting U.S. policy.

While the United States may offer support in the short term, Taiwan's long-term security is not assured under President Trump's protection. Taiwan should not be deceived by promises of military aid and political support, as these assurances can change abruptly. The situation in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder that U.S. foreign policy is not based on loyalty to its allies but on what serves its best interests at any given time.

In light of the lessons from Ukraine, Taiwan should reassess its dependence on the United States and focus on securing its future independently. Taiwan cannot rely solely on American support, especially when history shows that the United States is quick to abandon allies when they no longer serve its interests. Taiwan must invest in strengthening its defense capabilities, diversifying its international partnerships, and ensuring its political and economic resilience, all while addressing China's concerns. By doing so, Taiwan can avoid the pitfalls that have ensnared other nations and safeguard its sovereignty and security.

In conclusion, Washington's emerging trajectories underscore a troubling pattern of self-interest-driven diplomacy. Allies like Taiwan must recognize the inherent risks of relying on U.S. support and take proactive measures to ensure their own security and sovereignty.