An Unlikely Alliance? Egypt and Turkey's Fragile Path to Regional Cooperation
By: A. Yeganeh
The recent visit of Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to Ankara, following twelve years of strained relations between Egypt and Turkey, marks a significant development in West Asian geopolitics.
This diplomatic rapprochement, after years of animosity spurred by Turkey’s staunch support of the Muslim Brotherhood and the fall of Mohamed Morsi in 2013, signals a shift that warrants close scrutiny. President Erdogan’s visceral response to the Egyptian military’s rise to power in the aftermath of Morsi’s ousting resulted in a severe cooling of bilateral ties, limiting not only political discourse but also economic exchanges. Now, El-Sisi's journey to Turkey stands as a pivotal moment for both nations, raising questions about the broader implications for regional stability, economic cooperation, and geopolitical alignment.
Economic Interests as a Unifying Force
At the heart of this renewed engagement between Egypt and Turkey lies a shared economic calculus. Both countries are heavyweight actors in West Asia and are acutely aware of the mutual benefits that could arise from fostering closer trade ties. In recent years, Egypt has faced mounting economic challenges, and its government has prioritized economic growth and energy exports as crucial pillars of its foreign policy. Turkey, for its part, seeks access to North Africa and deeper trade relationships with Egypt’s neighbors. The prospect of Egypt becoming a key supplier of gas to Turkey presents a valuable opportunity for Ankara, which is eager to diversify its energy sources, reducing its dependency on imports from Iran. This potential cooperation could, in turn, contribute to regional stability, as stronger economic interdependence often underpins lasting peace and prosperity.
The question arises: how far can economic collaboration go in mending political wounds? While the incentives for boosting trade are clear, the underlying tensions between Ankara and Cairo cannot be disregarded. After all, economic expediency may not be enough to fully erase the deep ideological rifts that have divided these two nations. Yet, in the context of West Asia’s volatile landscape, pragmatism may ultimately outweigh past grievances, driving both countries toward a more collaborative future.
Palestine: A Shared Cause Revisited
Another key dimension to this renewed dialogue is the role both Egypt and Turkey have historically played in the Palestinian question. Both countries were once staunch supporters of Palestinian liberation and were instrumental in championing the cause on the global stage. Yet, in recent years, their influence in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has waned, leading to mounting domestic pressure for greater involvement.
El-Sisi’s visit to Turkey could reignite this shared commitment, potentially positioning Egypt and Turkey as key players in the ongoing Palestinian peace talks. With Qatar serving as a central mediator between Palestinian factions and Israel, the combined influence of Ankara and Cairo could shift the balance of power and offer a renewed impetus for peace. However, the question remains: is this rekindling of diplomatic relations merely symbolic, or can it lead to tangible progress on the ground in Palestine? The complex dynamics at play suggest that while the Palestinian issue may serve as a rallying cry for unity, the road to peace remains fraught with challenges.
A Strategic Realignment Toward the East
One of the more intriguing subtexts of El-Sisi’s visit is the potential for a broader strategic realignment, particularly in the context of BRICS expansion. Following Egypt’s recent membership in BRICS, alongside other regional heavyweights like Saudi Arabia and Iran, there has been growing interest in Turkey’s potential inclusion in the bloc. Turkish media outlets have reported on Erdogan’s aspirations to join BRICS, and this diplomatic overture from Cairo could be seen as part of a concerted effort to woo Turkey into the fold.
Such a move would be significant, not only for Egypt and Turkey but for the broader geopolitics of West Asia. Should Turkey pursue BRICS membership, it could further solidify a realignment of power away from Western influence and toward the East, drawing in key actors like China and Russia. Egypt, which has long sought a stronger international backing to address its domestic economic challenges, would stand to gain from this strategic partnership, leveraging its newfound alliances to attract investment and secure much-needed support. The specter of this geopolitical shift, however, raises concerns about how it may impact the balance of power in the region, particularly in relation to the United Arab Emirates, which has often viewed Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement with suspicion.
Fragile Peace in a Tense Region
Ultimately, the normalization of relations between Egypt and Turkey is emblematic of the fragile equilibrium that characterizes West Asia. While economic benefits and potential political dividends are clear, the broader geopolitical landscape remains deeply uncertain. Both nations are attempting to navigate a region rife with competing interests, ideological schisms, and external pressures. The restoration of diplomatic ties between Cairo and Ankara may offer a glimmer of hope for greater stability in West Asia, yet it also underscores the precarious nature of the peace that exists in the region.
As Egypt and Turkey move toward closer cooperation, it is essential to consider the broader implications of this rapprochement. What will this mean for the future of regional alliances? How will it affect the balance of power in the ongoing Palestinian conflict? And perhaps most importantly, can this newfound partnership endure the test of time, or will the weight of past grievances once again pull these two nations apart? The answers to these questions will shape the future of West Asia for years to come.
