China’s Population Decline: A Growing Challenge for Its Economy and Society

China's population has fallen for the third consecutive year, a trend that poses significant challenges for the world’s second-largest economy. According to government data, the population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year. This demographic shift highlights growing concerns about an aging society, a shrinking workforce, and the long-term sustainability of China’s economic growth.

The drop in population is part of a broader global pattern, particularly in East Asia, where nations like Japan and South Korea are also grappling with plummeting birth rates. Rising living costs, career-focused lifestyles, and delayed marriages have led many young people to forgo having children. While improved healthcare has extended life expectancy, it hasn’t offset the declining birthrate, especially in countries like China that restrict immigration. The result is an aging population and mounting pressure on social services.

China’s demographic challenges are rooted in its controversial one-child policy, which was implemented in 1980 to curb population growth but has left lasting effects. Although officially scrapped in 2015 and replaced with a two-child policy (later expanded to three children), the cultural and economic barriers to larger families persist. The policy also contributed to a skewed sex ratio due to the cultural preference for male heirs, exacerbating social instability. As of 2024, the official sex ratio was 104.34 men for every 100 women, though some independent estimates suggest the gap is wider.

This demographic crisis has far-reaching implications. Over 22% of China’s population is now aged 60 or older, with projections that this figure will surpass 30% by 2035. A shrinking workforce could slow economic growth, strain an already fragile pension system, and challenge urbanization efforts. While government incentives, including cash payouts and housing subsidies, have been introduced to encourage higher birthrates, these measures have seen limited success. The question remains whether China can adapt its social and economic policies to address its demographic decline or risk "growing old before it grows rich.