Erdogan is waiting for a signal from Baku to regulate relations with Armenia

In a conversation with Ermenihaber.am, Thomas de Waal, a senior expert of the "Carnegie" Foundation, a British researcher dealing with the problems of the South Caucasus, expressed such an opinion. In his article titled "Armenia's Year of Insecurity" published last year on the "Carnegie Foundation" website, the British researcher pointed out the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations among the optimistic scenarios of 2023 and presented the possible victory of the opposition in the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey as a contributing factor. However, Ankara continues to present new preconditions to Armenia, the most important of which, perhaps, is the signing of a peace treaty with Baku. Ermenihaber.am asked the analyst whether he still considers it possible to normalize relations between the two countries in 2024. "I think it is possible, I think Erdogan is waiting for Azerbaijan. Turkey's preconditions have changed over the years. Do you remember: 10-15 years ago, Turkish officials said that it would be enough if the Armenian troops were withdrawn from even just one region, only from Fizuli (Varanda-ed.) or only from Jabrayil (Jrakan-ed.), and they would regulate relations. Then not one, but seven regions were lost, Karabakh was lost, there is still no settlement," De Waal noted. According to him, the selection of the field of Turkish foreign policy sees all the advantages and benefits that they will receive in case of the acceleration of relations with Armenia. New transport connections can be created, Turkey can become a player in the South Caucasus, the regulation of relations with Armenia can have a good effect on Turkish-American relations, particularly with Congress, etc. "They take those interests into account, but Turkey's foreign policy is now clearly run by the president's staff, Mr. Erdogan, and he is now waiting for signals from Baku. In my opinion, even if a small, one-page agreement is signed between Baku and Yerevan, it will be enough for Ankara. But this is a very optimistic scenario and it really, unfortunately, depends on Baku," the expert concluded.