European Parliament Poised for Rightward Shift After Final Voting

Voters in 21 EU countries, including France and Germany, are wrapping up a four-day election for the European Parliament, which is expected to result in a shift to the right and an increase in eurosceptic nationalist representation.

Key Points:

• Election Context: The election will determine how the EU, representing 450 million citizens, addresses challenges like Russia's hostility, industrial competition from China and the US, climate change, and immigration.
• Voting Process: The election began on Thursday in the Netherlands and continued in various countries through Sunday. Most votes are being cast today, including in major countries like France, Germany, Poland, and Spain.
• Exit Polls and Results: An EU-wide exit poll will be released around 20:30 CET (18:30 GMT), with first provisional results expected after 23:00 CET when Italy completes its voting.

Expected Outcomes:

• Rightward Shift: Opinion polls indicate that pro-European liberals and Greens will lose seats. This reduction in the center-right and center-left majority could complicate the passage of new EU laws and efforts to deepen European integration.
• Influences on Voting Behavior: Voters' decisions have been heavily influenced by the cost of living crisis, migration concerns, the expense of the green transition, and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine.
• Far-Right Gains: Hard and far-right parties have capitalized on public discontent, positioning themselves as alternatives to mainstream politics.

Country-Specific Insights:

• Netherlands: Exit polls show nationalist Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration party is set to win seven of the 29 Dutch seats, up from zero in 2019.
• Belgium: The far-right Flemish separatist party Vlaams Belang is expected to see record support. However, it may still be excluded from office by other parties, leaving Prime Minister Alexander De Croo's government in a caretaker role until a new coalition is formed.
• France: Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National is likely to outperform President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance, negatively impacting the liberal group Renew Europe.

Institutional Impact:

• European People’s Party: The center-right European People’s Party is forecasted to remain the largest group in the European Parliament. This could position Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as European Commission President, although she may need support from right-wing nationalists like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.
• Legislative Direction: The rightward shift suggests the new parliament may be less supportive of aggressive climate change policies and EU enlargement reforms, while favoring stricter immigration measures.

Broader Implications:

• The expected results reflect a broader European trend of rising nationalist sentiment and skepticism towards the EU. This shift could influence the EU’s policy directions, impacting not only internal dynamics but also its role on the global stage.

These elections mark a significant moment for the European Union, potentially reshaping its political landscape and policy priorities in the coming years.