Riyadh-Tel Aviv Normalization: Biden and Netanyahu's Last Roll of the Dice

By: E. Mahdavi

On September 20, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (also known by his initials, MBS) declared that Saudi Arabia and Israel are steadily moving closer to normalizing their relations with each passing day. John Kirby, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, confirmed that consultations are progressing toward an agreement to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime. He further stated that these consultations have resulted in the finalization of the main framework for a future agreement on the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. Kirby added that Saudi Arabia and Israel have established the basic framework of this agreement to facilitate its realization.

The Foreign Minister of Israel also expressed optimism, stating that an agreement framework mediated by the United States to establish relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia could potentially be achieved by early next year.

In recent months, the United States and Israel have prioritized the issue of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In recent weeks, this pursuit has taken on a more earnest tone. Despite Saudi Arabia's stringent conditions, including matters related to nuclear enrichment and the security agreement with the United States, it appears that the Israelis and Americans are willing to accommodate MBS' desired concessions. This indicates a keen wish from both Tel Aviv and Washington to expedite the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

According to prominent Israeli expert Yoni Ben-Menachem, both Joe Biden and Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have political considerations in relation to the trilateral agreement with Saudi Arabia.

Since assuming office, President Joe Biden has not achieved significant accomplishments for US foreign policy, making his administration one of the least successful in American history. The United States has failed to contain Iran, halt its nuclear project, or revive the JCPOA. It has also been unable to effectively address Chinese geopolitical might. Despite providing military and financial aid, the Ukrainian army has made limited progress in its conflict with Russia, resulting in a significant setback to Western European countries. Criticism has also been directed at Biden and his administration for the prisoner exchange agreement with Tehran and the release of Iranian frozen assets held in South Korea. These factors indicate that Biden's administration lacks tangible achievements and is at risk of being labeled one of the least successful in modern US history.

As the election season approaches and campaign activities commence, Biden, with a lackluster track record, must enter the race. Given the recent controversies surrounding Biden's mental health and widespread criticism of his administration, it is predicted that his government will lose the 2024 elections unless there is a historic transformation in West Asia, one of the world's most significant regions. The realization of normalization between Saudi Arabia, a key Islamic country and a major energy supplier in global markets, and Israel will undoubtedly be a historic change with significant ramifications that can impact the West Asia region.

With the 2024 presidential election campaign looming on the horizon, the Biden administration has limited chances of achieving this historic milestone to compensate for its failures. It is expected that the Biden administration will continue to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia to expedite normalization. The acceptance of Saudi Arabia's conditions, such as signing a defense treaty and establishing enrichment facilities on Saudi soil, which the United States had previously been unwilling to accept, can be seen in this context.

The Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself in a political turmoil as protests against his right-wing government in the occupied territories have intensified. Netanyahu's popularity in polls has diminished, and he has been unable to reach an agreement with his political opponents. In this context, achieving normalization with Saudi Arabia, the most significant Arab country in the region, has become a priority for Netanyahu. It can potentially improve his political standing and increase his dwindling legitimacy. Netanyahu's cabinet faces challenging conditions, and it is possible that his coalition will lose its majority in the future Knesset election, leading to the collapse of his government. Therefore, reaching a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, and subsequently with other Arab kingdoms, holds great importance for him.

This objective is so crucial to Netanyahu that he is willing to disregard the Menachem Begin Doctrine and accept the Saudis' nuclear condition under the supervision of the United States, despite widespread opposition back in Israel. It should be noted that, similar to the Biden government, Netanyahu's administration has not achieved any significant foreign policy achievements since entering office, attracting colossal criticism. Furthermore, Netanyahu believes that, for the purpose of curbing Iran's nuclear program, Saudi Arabia, its arch-rival, needs to possess its own nuclear program to create a balance of power and thus foment conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, thereby exerting more pressure on Tehran.

Considering the circumstances surrounding Biden and Netanyahu, both administrations facing unfavorable situations, it becomes apparent why there is an acceleration in normalization efforts and negotiations, as well as a willingness to accept Saudi Arabia's stringent conditions by both Biden and Netanyahu. In the coming weeks, it will be interesting to observe how the normalization negotiations progress and whether Saudi Arabia's demands will be met. It should be noted that the Palestinian crisis, which was one of Saudi Arabia's conditions, remains unresolved and has the potential to torpedo the normalization process at any moment.