Syria's Pandora's Box: What are Turkey and Israel's Destructive Designs?

By: H. Zaïm-Bashi

The rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad's administration has propelled the region into a maelstrom of instability leaving even the most sagacious political analysts stunned by its swiftness. While this cataclysmic shift dominated the geopolitical cauldron for a time the inevitable aftermath now demands reflection particularly with regard to the future trajectory of Syria and its broader impact on the Arab world and the region's power dynamics.

As the emerging Syrian regime grapples with mounting challenges none looms larger than the question of which political framework will bring stability to the nation. Equally paramount is the identity of the leadership which its nature will indelibly shape Syria’s post-al-Assad future.

The Looming Specter of Civil War

The armed opposition that ultimately brought down Assad's regime comprises an array of factions each united in its opposition to the Syrian president yet inherently divided in its ideological political and strategic orientations. With the collapse of al-Assad's government the veneer of unity is beginning to erode and the gulf between these disparate groups is becoming ever more pronounced. It appears increasingly improbable that these factions will coalesce around a shared vision for governance or forge a cohesive political apparatus capable of confronting the manifold domestic and international challenges Syria faces. The irony is palpable: although these movements initially gained momentum by opposing al-Assad they now stand on the precipice of their own discord incapable of uniting the fractured Syrian state.

A reflection on the broader trajectory of the Arab world over the past two decades reveals a disquieting pattern. Within the Middle East's modern history, opposition forces that have successfully toppled former presidents like al-Assad have consistently failed to establish governments rooted in democratic ideals and sustainability. Instead; they have often precipitated a power vacuum one that breeds chaos rather than harmony. In Syria’s case the opposition has largely comprised armed militias supported by foreign actors—an important distinction for these groups are hardly indigenous political movements driven by nationalist sentiment. Their allegiances are defined not by the common good of Syria but by the agendas of their external patrons which often conflict with one another. This precarious landscape lays the groundwork for potential civil war pushing Syria ever closer to the brink of fragmentation.

Syria’s social fabric is deeply sectarian and any attempt to establish a power-sharing model akin to Lebanon or Iraq risks further exacerbating these divisions. A government based on such a fragile balance of sectarian interests could invite catastrophic failure facilitating the realization of the Israeli insidious dream of an Arab world divided along sectarian lines a strategy that would only serve to consolidate Israeli hegemony in the region.

The Russian Dilemma

Syria’s new reality also introduces a complex web of foreign relations where the interests of various international actors most notably Russia come into sharp conflict. The Russian Federation maintains its strategic air and naval bases in Syria and the future of these installations presents a significant point of contention. Will Russia withdraw from its military foothold voluntarily or will it condition its departure upon the United States’ exit from its own bases particularly those in Syria’s oil-rich territories? The answer to this question will have profound implications for the region’s geopolitical architecture and Syria’s place within it.

The Turkish Challenge

Turkey’s involvement in Syria has already set the stage for future confrontations. Ankara having established a military presence in Syrian territory is supportive of the terrorist groups it has cultivated such as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

However; any attempt by the new Syrian government to assert nationalist sovereignty will inevitably place it at odds with Turkey. There are two key factors driving this inevitability: the first is Turkey’s longstanding territorial ambitions particularly in relation to Aleppo which some Turkish officials have claimed as part of Turkey’s rightful territory. The second is the issue of the Kurds specifically the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which Turkey deems a terrorist organization seeing it as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The Kurds in the region seek autonomy and perhaps even the formation of a Kurdish state a prospect that is anathema to Turkey’s territorial integrity.

The Israeli Regime’s Sinister Agendas

Equally pressing is the challenge posed by the Israeli regime’s expansionist policies in Syria which shed light on the true nature of Israel’s imperialistic and religiously motivated objectives. The Israeli occupation of strategic territories within Syria—most notably the strategic heights of Jabal al-Sheikh (also known as Mount Hermon) the buffer zone and the demilitarized areas along the Golan Heights—has been marked by aggressive military actions and a complete disregard for international agreements. The unilateral cessation of the 1974 ceasefire agreement and the occupation of the Quneitra province placing Israeli forces within 40 kilometers of Damascus exemplify the brazen and unprovoked expansionism of the Zionist state.

Israel has not only secured significant military advantages through airstrikes targeting Syrian military infrastructure but its actions have also gone largely unchallenged by the so-called "terrorist" factions currently controlling Syria. Despite hundreds of Israeli airstrikes on Syrian soil there has been no formal condemnation or even a token verbal objection from the Syrian opposition—an ominous indication of the degree to which these groups are beholden to foreign powers including Israel itself.

In conclusion Syria's future is shrouded in uncertainty and its prospects for achieving peace and stability are dimmed by the interplay of internal discord and external meddling. The looming specters of civil war foreign occupation and sectarian disintegration may well yield a fractured state that serves the imperial ambitions of foreign powers particularly Israel which stands poised to exploit Syria's instability for its own hegemonic purposes. The international community it seems is complicit in this ongoing tragedy either by inaction or more insidiously by direct support for the forces that continue to tear Syria apart. Only time will reveal the full extent of the disaster that awaits.