Tensions Remain: Decoding the Xi-Biden Meeting in San Francisco
In a momentous convergence of world leaders, the presidents of China and the United States convened in San Francisco, reigniting face-to-face discussions after a year-long hiatus. This pivotal meeting possesses the potential to lay the groundwork for enhanced interactions between these influential nations within the international system. By engaging in dialogue and diplomatic exchanges, these countries can begin to address the profound disparities and misconceptions that have characterized their relationship, thereby fostering a climate of understanding and cooperation.
The significance of this presidential encounter is particularly pronounced against the backdrop of heightened global tensions. China, perpetually striving to assert its superpower status, was unmistakably projected as such during this rendezvous, as evidenced by the requests articulated by the United States. President Biden, in a bid to restore order and stability to the international system, implored his Chinese counterpart to utilize his capacity for exerting influence. Specifically, these appeals centered around exerting control and pressure on Iran, engaging in negotiations with Hamas, and refraining from weapon sales to Russia while pressuring them to cease hostilities in Ukraine.
Conversely, President Xi also articulated specific demands of the United States, including the removal of technology sanctions and the facilitation of foreign investments in China. Lamentably, limited progress was achieved concerning the most contentious issue between these two superpowers, namely Taiwan. Concerns have arisen within China, as well as among certain factions within the United States, regarding the Biden administration’s verbal support for the self-governing island, an entity that China considers an integral part of its territory. Xi reiterated that the United States should "cease arming Taiwan and support China's peaceful reunification." In response, President Biden affirmed the United States' commitment to continue arming Taiwan as a deterrent. Last year, China's anxieties pertaining to U.S. support for Taiwan peaked when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island, resulting in a vehement rebuke from Beijing and the subsequent suspension of key communication channels, including drug control and military dialogues. Encouragingly, signs of alleviating tensions emerged during the San Francisco meeting, as the two leaders agreed to resume military discussions and reached a consensus on fentanyl-related matters.
The extent to which these leaders prioritize and implement each other's vital demands will only become evident over time. Nevertheless, the transformation in the tone of bilateral discourse, transitioning from hostility to amicability, is unequivocal.
China's Optimism?
China, in a remarkable rhetorical shift, lauded the "warm" meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in California. The Chinese Foreign Ministry's report proclaimed the U.S.-China relationship as "the most important bilateral relationship in the world," further asserting that "a stable and thriving China benefits not only the United States but also the entire globe." Beijing's official rhetoric has recently undergone a notable transformation, adopting a conciliatory stance towards the United States, in contrast to its previously more assertive posture. A recent editorial in the People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, even referred to the United States as an "old friend." Hua Chunying, China's Assistant Foreign Minister and spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasized the personal and political closeness between the two nations. He shared a photograph on social media capturing the two leaders sharing smiles, with President Biden purportedly displaying an image of President Xi as a young man against the backdrop of the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. Hua also posted a picture of the Flying Tigers, an American squadron of fighter pilots who valiantly aided China in repelling Japan during World War II, underscoring the enduring bond between the American and Chinese people. Beijing, in recent months, has revived the tale of the Flying Tigers as a testament to positive U.S.-China collaboration. However, China cautioned during the Xi-Biden meeting that "the United States should refrain from attempts to suppress and contain China," employing language aimed at deterring a Cold War scenario. While Beijing had previously accused Washington of perpetuating a "new Cold War," Biden reportedly reiterated during the meeting that such an outcome was not his intention. At a dinner hosted by the US-China Business Council and the National Committee on US-China Relations, Xi praised the Flying Tigers and revealed his correspondence with some surviving members of the squadron. "The fundamental question for the U.S. and China is whether we are adversaries or partners," Xi posited. He underscored China's commitment to never gamble against the United States or interfere in its internal affairs, emphasizing that China harbors no desire to challenge or undermine U.S. power. On the contrary, China welcomes a secure, open, ever-growing, and prosperous United States. Reciprocally, the United States should also refrain from gambling against China or meddling in its internal affairs, instead embracing a peaceful, stable, and prosperous China.
Behind the facade of warmth exhibited by Xi and Biden, several points of contention persist. Notably, amidst China's economic challenges, the United States has tightened restrictions on high-tech exports. Imminent regulations governing the export of chip-making technology, designed to curtail China's ability to develop cutting-edge semiconductors, loom on the horizon—a situation China will undoubtedly strive to overturn.
It appears that both powers have reached the consensus that dialogue represents the optimal means of resolving present tensions. Should these tensions and challenges surpass a certain threshold, they have the potential to precipitate cataclysmic consequences within the international system. The meeting at hand may thus serve as a momentous prelude to deeper dialogues and concerted efforts on the part of both nations to address and mitigate a plethora of global issues and challenges. Sustaining this interaction necessitates the passage of time and the preservation of mutual interests. The allocation of resources toward this endeavor may prove burdensome for the United States, given its somewhat reticent disposition towards active involvement in the international system's structural management. Consequently, this approach may be perceived as a tactical and transitory shift rather than a long-term strategy. China, too, remains cognizant of this reality. The future impact of China's actions and dynamics on the interplay between these parties and the very structure of the global system remains to be seen. Will we ultimately find ourselves embroiled in a new Cold War or ushered into a multipolar system where the United States relinquishes its leadership role? The unfolding chapters of history shall reveal the answers.
