The UAE's Geopolitical Gambit: Abu Dhabi's Pursuit of the Russian Alliance in the Island Dispute
The geopolitical importance of straits and islands cannot be understated, as they have a profound impact on a nation's foreign policy and defense dynamics. Such considerations are fundamental in the formulation of military strategies. In the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz and the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tonb, and Lesser Tonb hold immense strategic value, and their control falls under the purview of Iran, owing to its historical sovereignty over these territories.
Since the establishment of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 1971, the three islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tonb, and Lesser Tonb have remained subjects of contention between Iran and the UAE due to their strategic significance in the Persian Gulf. Consequently, the territorial dispute surrounding these islands has exerted a notable influence on the bilateral relations between Tehran and Abu Dhabi and has even reverberated across the wider Arab world.
While Iran has maintained control over these islands, the UAE, along with organizations such as the Arab League and the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC), has persistently voiced its rightful claims, leading to implications for Iran's foreign policy.
Within the foreign policy framework of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the preservation of independence and territorial integrity is a non-negotiable and inviolable principle. Whether it be the three islands in question or any other region where the country's territorial integrity is at risk, Iran staunchly opposes such threats. The Iranian people, too, place immense importance on the issue of territorial integrity, demonstrating an unwavering commitment to this particular cause.
Given Iran's steadfast refusal to engage in discussions or compromise on the matter of the three islands, the UAE has sought to leverage international capacities, particularly by attempting to garner support within the context of China's involvement. Recognizing the historical significance of Chinese-Iranian relations and, notably, Iran's strained relations with Western members of the UN Security Council, namely the United States, France, and the UK, Abu Dhabi has explored alternative avenues to cast its claims over the three Persian Gulf islands. In this pursuit, the UAE has turned its attention to China and Russia, the two permanent members of the Security Council with veto power, whose agreement is essential for any meaningful progress.
When nations, especially major powers, reach a consensus and adopt a unified stance on a specific issue, it carries substantial weight. For instance, if China aligns with Arab countries in the Persian Gulf or if Russia finds common ground with Arab nations regarding the UAE's misguided claims over the Iranian islands, it signifies an increasing influence of Russian hegemony, particularly under President Putin's leadership.
By supporting the UAE's baseless claims on two occasions, Moscow has demonstrated its readiness to bear the responsibility associated with advancing these claims. This underscores Moscow’s prioritization of maintaining relations with the UAE while attaching little significance to the potential reactions from Tehran.
The imposition of US and European sanctions on the Russian oil industry has positioned the UAE as the Kremlin's primary export destination, with Emirati leaders procuring and refining Russian crude oil at discounted prices, thereby circumventing Western sanctions. It is worth noting that the perception of the UAE distancing itself from the United States in favor of Russia is misleading.
On the contrary, evidence suggests that the UAE has expanded its relations with Russia with the tacit approval of Washington. The benefits derived from its association with Moscow, coupled with support from the United States, have fostered closer ties between these two nations.
Following the conflict in Ukraine, American officials privately signaled their tacit approval of Russian oil trade with the UAE, as long as both parties adhered to the price ceiling defined by G7 countries. This arrangement aimed to curtail the Kremlin's revenue. Although the United States and Europe imposed import bans on Russian gold, these sanctions also had little impact on the UAE's engagement in this domain. During the Arab Spring and even amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Dubai, hailed as the Middle East's paradise, continued to attract Russian wealth. As a result, Dubai has become a major hub for trading Russian gold, effectively shifting the epicenter of the oil trading industry from Europe and, in particular, Geneva to the UAE.
Additionally, the influx of Russians into the UAE has captured the attention of the banking sector. Dubai's main state-owned bank, NBD, has encouraged bankers from Russian financial institutions to establish units for managing the wealth of affluent Russians and oligarchs. Concurrently, local banks have opened thousands of accounts for Russian clients. Nevertheless, Emirati officials have also stressed that local banks avoid engaging with sanctioned individuals to preserve their relations with American banks, which facilitate dollar settlements.
Russia, too, pursues its interests through its relationship with the UAE, especially given the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions. Consequently, according to President Putin, the United Arab Emirates stands as Russia's primary business partner in the Arab world.
Hence, when Russia lends support to the UAE's unfounded claims on the three Iranian islands, not once but twice within the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council and during the recent Morocco summit, it holds legal consequences and conveys a distinct diplomatic message, with ramifications for both Iran and the UAE.
While Iran has attempted to diplomatically caution Russia against this strategic faux pas, it appears that a more decisive approach is required to address the UAE's false claims regarding the islands and to deal firmly with Russia, considering Iranian national interests. Tehran should consider retaliatory measures and apply pressure, particularly in the Balkans, focusing on human rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Lastly, it is essential to note that the UAE is often described as a loyal pawn within the United States’ general foreign policy. Regarding its relations with Russia, the UAE has demonstrated its commitment to its longstanding partnership with the US and the EU. The UAE's increased engagement with Russia comes from its understanding of its Western allies. Thus, Moscow must exercise caution in interpreting Abu Dhabi's policies before making any remarks regarding Iran's territorial integrity.
