The Ukrainian offensive that will never be

For months now there has been talk in the mainstream press about the offensive that the Ukrainian armed forces should lead against the Russian army. Let's clear the field of misunderstandings: in the current state of affairs there will be no Ukrainian offensive. The Ukrainians have no chance to attack the Russians. In military history, actions of this type are usually studied and an attempt is made to implement them in total secrecy, to catch the enemy unawares. In this case we are dealing with the most publicized military action in history and it is precisely because it is a fantasy, something that will never happen, in the current state of things.

The function of this much-vaunted offensive lies in the fact that it continues to keep Western attention high, so as to remain steadfast in their failed policy of support for Ukraine in a war it is destined to lose, with dramatic consequences for the population local.

In the last 15 months, the Western press, as usual, has portrayed a situation of the Ukrainian conflict completely detached from reality. The plot is essentially the following: the bad and criminal Russians, completely disorganized and incapable, are suffering unspeakable losses from the Ukrainians who, armed by the West and having the superiority of our armaments, are resisting the Russians and as soon as the situation of the climate will improve they will free the Ukrainian territory (including Crimea) from the invader. In reality, things are entirely different. It is known that die-hard cheer obfuscates the ability to analyze, but here we are faced with a manifestation of collective madness, worse than the hype of the war in Iraq.

Essentially the Russians had conceived the special military operation to force the Ukrainians into negotiations. Anyone who believes that the use of the term "special military operation" is a symptom of readiness to comply with Russian wishes is the usual simplistic person destined to understand nothing. If the Russians had started a war (as they almost do now) they would have bombed the Ukrainian parliament, the seat of the government and the offices of the ministries to decapitate the country: this was not their intention. In the first phase of the operation the Russians only flexed their muscles: breaking through everywhere and pushing the Ukrainians to deal seriously after being fooled by everyone for 8 years with the Minsk treaties. Calculation succeeded in fact after 5 weeks from the start of the special military operation the Ukrainians were ready to sign peace with the Russians in Turkey.

But the USA and Boris Johnson intervened, who flew to Kyev in those days, and the message was clear: you Ukrainians don't have to make peace with anyone, you have to sacrifice yourselves because our objective is the disintegration of Russia or at least the change of regime with a desired removal of Putin. The strong Ukrainians of Western aid took the Russians by surprise who were now convinced that they had reached an agreement. This explains the Russian confusion in those first two months of intervention.

The tactic used by the Russians from then on was to be content with staying in Bakhmut, a fundamental road and railway junction but above all a super-fortified city. The Russian army turned Bakhmut into a meat grinder without advancing a millimeter for months: they took a position and then allowed the Ukrainians to take it back, making them pay dearly. So what did the Russians do? They changed their military tactics and instead of trying to advance (at exorbitant cost in terms of lives) they started a war of attrition. This seems to have escaped the outside commentators who, on the now eminently theoretical assumption that Russia was trying to advance, completely overestimated the Russian losses and underestimated the Ukrainian ones.