Will Iran's strategic patience wear out against Baku's and Azerbaijan's destabilising policies?

By: N. Daneshvar

With nearly two years in office, Ebrahim Raisi's administration has diligently endeavoured to improve Iran's ties with its immediate neighbours and key regional states. The outcomes of these tremendous efforts have reverberated all around the globe. However, the oligarchy in Baku has taken an adversarial stance vis-à-vis Tehran, notwithstanding recent positive developments between Iran and many key Arab governments. There seems to be no limit to Baku's negative approach, which might further strain Iran-Azerbaijan relations. In the most recent incident, Aliyev's regime declared four Iranian diplomats persona non grata and demanded their departure.

Security officials in Baku have arrested many Azeri citizens in recent weeks on various allegations, including those alleging ties to Iran, which the Iranian government has categorically denied. Aliyev's policies, which constantly provoke tensions in the southern Caucasus, seem to be motivated by other sinister factors, despite repeated statements from Iranian officials that improving diplomatic relations with regional countries is a top priority for the Islamic Republic of Iran's foreign policy and despite their delight at the mending of regional ties and the decrease in tensions.

Many observers attribute Baku's aggressive measures to the dangerous and unrealistic project of establishing the so-called "Zangezur Corridor, which emerged from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. There is no longer any doubt that the annexation of the Armenian southern province of Syunik along the borders with Iran takes precedence over the recovery of Azerbaijani territory in the disputed Karabakh region. Iran has repeatedly stated through diplomatic channels or by conducting military exercises that it has no intention of relinquishing its boundaries with Armenia. Moreover, Iran's senior officials have reiterated that Iran's historic border with Armenia is a geopolitical red line that cannot be crossed.

On the other hand, the Israeli government unquestionably contributed to the deterioration of relations between Tehran and Baku. As the sociopolitical schism in the occupied Palestinian territories continues to deepen, and this might lead to the downfall of Netanyahu's far-right administration. Netanyahu's mounting fears may also be understood in the context of unprecedented divisions in his government and, more broadly, the looming prospect of a civil war. Thus, to ensure his tenuous political position, Netanyahu is attempting to distract the global attention away from the current rallies against his judicial reform by fomenting conflicts between two Muslim states and exporting his own internal issues to the wider region.

The Qatar-based Al Jazeera's recent report on the aggressive actions taken by Aliyev's regime corroborates earlier reports that Tel Aviv is indeed fanning the ternions between Tehran and Baku.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani expressed alarm over Azerbaijan's counterproductive policies. According to Mr. Kanani, the Islamic Republic of Iran considers it a religious obligation for all Muslim countries to be on high alert and united, as the Zionist regime is in profound internal turmoil, which prompted the Zionists to try to generate external conflicts in order to get away from the present scenario in the occupied territories.

Commentators have noted that, in place of forceful political rhetoric, Iran has adopted the concepts of "interactive crisis management" and "strategic patience" in its deterrent tactics. The ruling elite in Baku has to realise that Iran isn't looking to engage in a war with them not because Iran is weak militarily but rather because Iran possesses far greater political, military, and economic might than Azerbaijan.

However, in response to Baku's provocative behaviour, Iran may resort to firm and forceful action following a period of dialogue and patience. In this scenario, Aliyev and his clique may be eliminated once and for all with limited Iranian military action, particularly given that the Republic of Azerbaijan is smaller than many Iranian provinces. Iran warns that it will not remain passive if local or international parties jeopardise the country's national interests and domestic security, despite its commitment to maintaining cordial relations with all of its neighbours.