Will the Armenia-US agreements be canceled?

The United States will not act against Russia in its relations with Armenia, and this is related to the approaches of US President Donald Trump's team.

In an interview with Sputnik Armenia, political scientist Arman Boshyan, president of the Yerevan Geopolitical Club, expressed such an opinion, addressing the question of why the promised "mission" of US specialists on border and customs control has not yet arrived in Yerevan.

In January, then-US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced during the signing ceremony of the Armenia-US Strategic Partnership Charter that an American team would arrive in Armenia in the coming weeks to work on border security issues . However, a few days ago, SRC Vice Chairman Rafael Gevorgyan announced that the visit had not yet taken place.

According to Boshyan, in the conditions of tectonic changes in the world, issues and projects related to Armenia will be implemented after coordination with Russia. Boshyan believes that the new Washington team will not implement any agreement with Yerevan without taking Moscow into account, and this also applies to the agreements between the Armenian authorities and the Biden team.

" The new administration has introduced a new ideology into US foreign policy. It is the ideology of technocrats. It assumes that agreements should be reached with Russia and China. By the way, what happened during the meeting between Trump and Zelensky in Washington shows the dismantling of the old system and the abolition of the old rules of the game. And until new rules are established (and this is a long-term process), there will be no serious cooperation between the US and Armenia," says Boshyan.

As the expert noted, Armenia itself is trying to maintain a balance between different centers, but even in that context, wrong decisions are made. One such decision is the adoption of the bill on starting the process of joining the EU.

In a situation where the European Union is neither a power nor even an intellectual unit, and is also in opposition to Trump and the US, Yerevan's steps are extremely short-sighted. The EU could have been considered part of the Western power bloc, when Brussels and Washington were united in their positions on global issues.

However, now that unity has been violated, in addition, there is no unified position within the EU on key issues between countries. And in these conditions, one should not expect any tangible results from the game played by the Armenian leadership. In addition, in his opinion, the European Union is not waiting for Armenia either, and no proposals have been received from Brussels.

Boshyan also reminds that the security agreements between Armenia and Russia continue to operate. Yerevan is under the security auspices of Moscow and remains a formal member of the CSTO, although it has announced the freezing of its membership. In fact, there are no formal mechanisms for freezing. 

In this context, the political scientist called the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the Zvartnots airport checkpoint and checkpoints on the border between Iran and Turkey another populist step by the Armenian authorities. From a political point of view, this is a negative step by Armenia, but from a military point of view, it does not change the balance. This balance can change only if the 102nd Russian military base is withdrawn.

However, Boshyan hopes that the situation surrounding Ukraine will have a chilling effect on the Armenian authorities, and at some point they will begin to pursue a more pragmatic policy.