Britain's Welfare Gamble: How Disability Cuts Could Deepen a National Crisis

In recent weeks, the UK government has proposed a series of cuts to disability and incapacity benefits, aiming to reduce welfare expenditures by over £5 billion annually. The plan includes limiting access to the Personal Independence Payment (PIP), lowering rates for new disability claims, and tightening eligibility for current payments. Independent reviews indicate that these cuts could significantly increase structural poverty and push approximately 250,000 people below the poverty line. The government argues these reforms will encourage medically able individuals to enter the workforce, but economic analysts and organizations such as the New Economics Foundation (NEF) have cast serious doubts on this claim. Overall, these reforms not only carry sweeping financial implications but also impose severe psychological and social burdens on disabled individuals and low-income families—threatening to ignite a full-scale welfare crisis in Britain.

The UK’s goal is to save £5 to £7 billion annually by reforming PIP. The proposed changes involve stricter eligibility criteria, streamlined assessments, and limiting required scores. A critical change is the new requirement to score at least four points in a single daily living activity to qualify for the daily living component of PIP—even if the total score surpasses eight. This shift changes the assessment’s focus from multiple needs to a singular dominant need, disqualifying many individuals with complex medical conditions from receiving support.

Set to take effect for new applicants from November 2026, and following reassessment for existing recipients, these reforms have sparked widespread concern among disability advocates. While the Department for Work and Pensions claims the changes will slow PIP case growth, charities argue the move will neither enhance productivity nor reduce long-term social costs.

Moreover, reduced PIP payments will directly impact the income of families with disabled members—many of whom already face financial hardship. This loss may compromise their ability to cover essential costs, save for retirement, or supplement pension income. Individuals unable to work full-time or earn sufficiently for retirement heavily rely on PIP. Cutting these benefits could jeopardize their financial future and deepen their dependency on other state or charitable support. Reports warn that such reforms may lead to rising homelessness and heightened pressure on local support services—particularly in areas suffering from entrenched poverty.

Studies also suggest the cuts will increase anxiety, depression, and psychological stress among disabled individuals and their families. According to a Scope report, 52% of disabled people reported that the rising cost of living negatively impacted their mental health, while 46% observed similar effects on their families.

Labour supporters argue that these financial pressures will escalate the need for social care services and deepen the welfare crisis. Rising energy, housing, and healthcare costs have already intensified structural poverty and the likelihood of domestic tensions. Street protests and social mobilization against the benefit cuts are likely to escalate. Already, hundreds have gathered outside the Department for Work and Pensions and Parliament.

Over 40 Labour MPs have signed a joint letter calling the policy “untenable” and demanding its withdrawal. Civil society organizations like Trust for London and Carers UK have fiercely criticized the government, warning that the decision will worsen poverty and lower civic participation among disabled individuals. Mainstream media outlets portray a unified image of a growing crisis that threatens the government’s political credibility and fuels social unrest.

Additionally, NEF’s economic analysis shows that the claimed savings of £4.8 billion are overestimated and could, at best, end up costing the welfare system up to £2 billion more. Multiple expert reports conclude that the economic value of supporting disabled individuals outweighs the costs, and slashing these supports could harm overall productivity, public health, and the national healthcare system.

Government documents reveal that even with the reforms, the number of PIP recipients is expected to rise by 750,000 by 2029–30, meaning the long-term administrative and social costs will remain. Thus, the fundamental question remains: will this manufactured welfare crisis genuinely improve labor market outcomes, or merely increase hidden social costs?

In sum, the UK government's austerity policies—by imposing sweeping cuts to benefits—have inflicted severe pressure on low-income groups and at-risk families. These measures have not only intensified structural poverty and psychological distress but have also sparked political backlash and broad public opposition. The effectiveness of these reforms remains dubious. Instead of reducing inequality, the government's approach appears to be deepening class divisions and intensifying the welfare crisis—posing serious challenges to the long-term stability of the monarchy and the legitimacy of the British state.

* Translated by Ashraf Hemmati from the original Persian article written by Amin Mahdavi