After defeating Ukraine, Russia will restore its position in the South Caucasu

According to the expert, the West has set the task of pushing Russia out of the region, and the USA and the EU have made the RA authorities a tool to achieve that goal. The latter are completely reviewing the allied relations with Russia. That is the root cause of the current tension. It is noteworthy that along with this, the authorities want to maintain the current high rates of economic interaction, realizing how beneficial these economic relations are for Armenia. However, Khalatyan doubts that in case of zero level of political interaction, Yerevan will manage to maintain close economic cooperation. And Russian officials have spoken about it several times.

"Of course, the Russian side understands that there is a problem in the security sector. But what are the reasons for such a situation is another question. Russia believes that it was the actions of the RA leadership that led to such conditions that providing assistance to Armenia has become either impossible or difficult. Naturally, the events unfolding around Ukraine have noticeably limited Russia's opportunities to influence the ongoing processes in the South Caucasus, and this has been discussed many times. However, the main problem is the lack of trust in the RA authorities. And Russia arranges its policy in the region in such a way that Armenia is no longer a reliable ally," says our interlocutor.

Officials of the Russian Federation have started talking more often about the fact that Armenia has become a tool in the hands of the West against Russia, Armenia wants to push Russia out of the region. And in Moscow, they often talk about such a scenario that Armenia will remain alone against Turkey and Azerbaijan due to its mistakes, and the West, contrary to expectations, will not come to help.

Khalatyan cannot find a reasonable explanation why the RA government unconditionally trusts the West, when the same USA has made the issue of helping Ukraine a subject of internal political disputes. Judging by everything, Yerevan is not governed by its own national interests, but by instructions received from outside. Or they mistakenly believe that the tougher the anti-Russian rhetoric is, the more help Armenia will receive from the West. However, the RA leadership forgets that the West has its own interests with Azerbaijan.

"Now it has become fashionable to talk about how France is the new strategic ally, that it will come to help and will not allow aggression against Armenia. I want to ask: who was sitting at the same table with Pashinyan, Michel and Aliyev in Prague in October 2022, when the Prague Declaration was signed, which recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan? Wasn't it Macron? I am not in favor of severing relations with France, but these relations cannot be contrasted with relations with other countries, especially with allies," says Khalatyan.

The behavior of the RA leadership is doubly strange and risky considering the ongoing political processes in the USA. According to the expert, if the Republican Party comes to power, and the probability of this is very high, the South Caucasus will remain out of Washington's foreign policy, and the role of Turkey for the US administration will increase significantly. Republicans will be interested in Ankara becoming stronger as a counterweight to Moscow and Tehran in the Greater Middle East. Of course, Erdogan is a problematic ally for the West, but he is an ally nonetheless.

Nevertheless , Khalatyan does not think that Russia will be excluded from the processes of this region . Even if Russia leaves, it is not a fact that the West will take its place . Iran will not allow the West to become stronger in the South Caucasus.

"Moscow's current passivity is explained by the fact that it hopes to regain lost positions after defeating Ukraine. By and large, it is not important for Russia what Pashinyan or Aliyev says. He will speak personally after defeating Ukraine. I think that Moscow has both time and strategic depth for a tactical withdrawal from the region. The West understands this, and that is the reason why it wants to quickly close the issue related to the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation, so that when Russia wants to return to the region and review the current arrangement of forces, it will have nowhere to return," the expert believes.

And it is for this reason that now in Russia they perceive the policy of the Armenian authorities very negatively, because the latter actually contribute to the plans and ideas of Washington and Brussels.