Blood, Bombs, and Broken Promises: The Rot Beneath America’s Fading Exceptionalism

By: A. Mahdavi

The recent increase in military budgets in NATO member states in Europe has sparked a debate about the broader implications for social welfare and domestic politics in these countries. In an era of rising geopolitical tensions and an evolving and uncertain security landscape, governments in Europe are being forced to allocate more resources to defense, which could come at the cost of declining prosperity in these countries.

Within the context of rising military spending, the need to strengthen national defense lies in the broader security threats. With the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rising tensions with Russia, and the ever-present threat of terrorism, along with a changing US approach to its commitments, NATO’s European members have felt the need to modernize their armed forces and strengthen their defense capabilities.

In many cases, these countries have had to meet NATO’s defense spending expectations, which has led to the reallocation of significant financial resources toward military investments such as advanced weapons, cyber defense, and advanced information systems.

Moreover, increased defense spending often requires cuts in other budget areas, especially social welfare programs. Education, healthcare, unemployment insurance, and pensions are among the critical sectors that can be seriously affected by governments prioritizing security over social investment. For countries with limited fiscal capacity, the tension between ensuring national security and maintaining social welfare is challenging. Diverting budgets from social services not only risks undermining citizens’ quality of life, but can also exacerbate inequality and social unrest. Eastern European countries, such as Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, face significant challenges in balancing these conflicting demands. These countries typically have lower GDPs and smaller tax bases than their Western European counterparts, making it more difficult to absorb increased defense spending without significant cuts to social programs. Similarly, southern European countries such as Italy and Spain, which have struggled with economic stagnation and high public debt, may find it difficult to maintain high levels of military spending without compromising social welfare provisions.

The political implications of this budgetary shift are profound. Public opinion in many European countries is becoming more sensitive to the allocation of government resources. Citizens who feel that their governments are prioritizing defense spending over essential social services may become frustrated and dissatisfied with the political establishment. This dissatisfaction could fuel populist movements and increase the likelihood of government change, as voters demand a better balance between national security and social welfare. Furthermore, as political parties debate these priorities, the political discourse may shift toward nationalism and protectionism, further complicating transatlantic relations and the internal cohesion of the European Union.

From an economic perspective, increased military budgets could have a dual effect. On the one hand, higher defense spending may stimulate economic activity in the defense sector and related industries, create jobs, and drive technological innovation. On the other hand, the opportunity cost of not investing in social infrastructure may hinder long-term economic growth. A weak social structure can lead to higher consumer spending, lower productivity, and an increase in the unskilled labor force, which ultimately affects overall economic competitiveness. In the long run, if social welfare declines significantly, this can slow economic recovery and increase social inequality. To mitigate these challenges, policymakers need to pursue a balanced approach. One possible solution is to seek additional sources of revenue that do not undermine social welfare, such as increasing the tax base to finance the defense spending that governments are considering. In addition, coordinated efforts at the EU level to share defense costs could relieve weaker countries from bearing the full burden of military spending. By distributing spending more evenly, the bloc may be able to protect social programs while still meeting its security obligations.

Conclusion

While the increase in military budgets among NATO member states is driven by security concerns, it poses significant challenges to social welfare systems. Countries such as those in Eastern and Southern Europe face a major challenge in balancing budgets, where increased defense spending can come at the cost of tangible cuts to social services. This shift not only affects the economic outlook, but also has the potential to reshape public opinion, leading to political instability and a loss of trust in government performance. And in the long term, resolving these tensions is likely to play a significant role in shaping European domestic politics and NATO cohesion in the years to come.