Israel’s Defeat in the Gaza Strip: What Are the Implications for the US 2024 Elections?
The humanitarian crisis in Palestine is currently one of the most debated topics in the United States, dominating political discussions and permeating the public sphere. Joe Biden, the incumbent Democratic President nearing the end of his tenure, finds himself amidst a barrage of criticism from various factions across the political spectrum due to his biased involvement in the Israeli war against the Gaza Strip, the impoverished Palestinian enclave with 2.3 million civilians. This situation has the potential to reverberate into the upcoming 2024 elections and shape his political future.
During his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden vowed to restore rationality to US foreign policy and distance himself from the negative and obstructive methods employed by his predecessor, Donald Trump. However, Biden's current positions have come under scrutiny and garnered vehement criticism.
Despite the profound disparities between Biden's administration and the Israeli ruling Likud party and its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, President Biden, accompanied by key members of his administration, including the defense and secretary of state, ventured into the occupied territories and expressed solidarity with Israel.
In a meeting with Netanyahu, Biden made an unconventional statement, asserting, "I don't believe that you have to be a Jew to be a Zionist. I am a Zionist." This unorthodox stance, coming from the oldest president in US history, has sparked admonishment within the United States.
Aaron David Miller, a former negotiator on Middle East affairs who has served under six Democratic and Republican administrations, argues that Biden's connection with Israel is deeply ingrained in his political DNA.
With the deterioration of the military landscape for the Israeli army, the ultimate downfall of the Israeli regime would have far-reaching implications for the political dynamics in the Middle East and the ongoing erosion of US hegemony in the oil-rich region.
Given that the waning of the United States' position could directly impact election outcomes and subsequently Biden's political future, it becomes apparent that the American president, despite his radical differences with Netanyahu and the Likud party, is striving to secure the support of the American Zionist lobby, better known as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), in the forthcoming 2024 elections.
Biden's alignment with Israel, deemed by some observers as a strategic maneuver to garner support from AIPAC, has disregarded the anti-Zionist sentiment prevalent among many segments of US society. However, this support for Israel and its war crimes against Palestinian civilians has resulted in a sharp plunge in Biden's popularity. The mounting international outrage and mass rallies witnessed across various countries reflect the blame attributed to Washington for its complicity in this humanitarian catastrophe.
For instance, Arab and Muslim-American communities, along with their progressive allies, have lambasted Biden's response to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, demanding that he take decisive measures to alleviate the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. Thus, failure to address these concerns could potentially lead to a loss of support for Biden in the 2024 presidential election. These communities argue that Biden has not exerted sufficient pressure on Israel to facilitate a humanitarian ceasefire. In such a precarious scenario, their growing frustration might significantly influence Biden's chances of securing re-election.
The evidence at hand suggests that Biden and the Democrats face formidable challenges. Polls assessing the Biden administration's handling of the recent conflict in occupied Palestine indicate that approximately 56% of American citizens harbor serious criticism toward his approach, while only 44% express agreement. These results illuminate a major miscalculation on the part of Biden and the American-Israeli think tanks as the actual dynamics of the unprecedented Operation Al-Aqsa Storm differ from the analyses conducted, rendering it highly probable that this issue will serve as Biden’s Achilles heel in the 2024 elections.
