Months of unrest in Israel have made it even harder for Bibi to Survive

By: H. Zaïm-Bashi

Following months of demonstrations against Benjamin Netanyahu's judicial reform, many political observers believe that the massive rallies have so far incorporated large segments of Israeli society, prevented the dismissal of Yoav Gallant, the minister of war, and, above all, proved to have a colossal deterrent power against Netanyahu's increasingly totalitarian policies.

Despite the unions' central role in organising the demonstrations, the protests' salient feature is the absence of a top-down leadership structure, which created a network connecting anti-Netanyahu activists.

The deterrent effect of these demonstrations is another victory for Netanyahu's rising number of opponents. Bibi and his far-right supporters face a difficult conundrum: On the one hand, they attempt to push forward with their authoritarian agenda, but they also have to acknowledge the power of the opposition, which is on display in Tel Aviv's streets every week, contributing to a growing political discourse that has driven Netanyahu's party to its lowest popularity since 2006.

Benjamin Netanyahu's approval rating is at an all-time low, with 67% of respondents asserting that he performs poorly. Only thirty percent of those surveyed held a favourable opinion of the beleaguered Zionist prime minister.

Over half of Likud voters are disappointed with the current administration, and almost as many are dissatisfied with the performance of Itamar Ben-Gvir, minister of internal security, and Bezalel Smotrich, minister of finance. Only the minister of war, Yoav Gallant, fared well, though. More than half of those who took part in the recent survey believe the current cabinet will not last for four years and will collapse before then.

According to research by the Israeli News 13 channel, the coalition of parties that support Bibi would only gain 46 seats if elections were held today, with the Likud party becoming the third-largest party with merely 20 seats. The Bennett-Lapid alliance of opposition parties, on the other hand, would hold 64 seats.

In addition, a recent poll reveals that Netanyahu's coalition parties continue to lose ground, with the right-wing losing hundreds of thousands of votes since the last election. Consequently, the right bloc will retain only 51 seats, while the centre-left and Arab blocs will hold 69.

When asked who is more qualified to serve as Israel's next prime minister, Benny Gantz received 44%, Benjamin Netanyahu received 33%, and 19% responded, "I do not know."

Based on these findings, Benny Gantz's HaMaḥane HaMamlakhti (or the National Unity Alliance) stands to gain the most from recent political developments, with 25 seats in the Knesset if elections are held today. At the same time, the Likud Party is the major loser of the current sociopolitical crisis.

One of the most noteworthy developments of the last few weeks has been the uptick in support for military and security politicians seeking a moderate ground in opposition to Netanyahu. As the only minister in Netanyahu's cabinet to obtain a favourable vote in the polls, War Minister Gallant clearly has widespread support among the Zionist voters.

Netanyahu's reform plan caused political turmoil in Israel, which, to the detriment of the Israeli security apparatus, coincided with a rise in the Palestinian resistance's military might. In the current situation, even a hint of coalition disagreements could precipitate the crushing fall of Netanyahu's administration.