Oil from Azerbaijan continues to flow to Israel through Turkish ports
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been drawing a fine line between the West, Russia and China for more than two decades.
Turkey has benefited from helping both sides in Russia's war against Ukraine, expanding its military potential and influence in Syria, Libya, the South Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, and extending its soft power to Africa, Central Asia and the Western Balkans, creating a national defense industry, writes analyst Paul Taylor for The Guardian.
" When international relations experts assess this, they often resort to the term "balancing." Turkish analysts prefer to talk about the desire for "strategic autonomy" - the ability to protect the country's interests from any threat, without dependence on any external power. But will Erdogan be able to continue his geopolitical acrobatics and benefit from it?" - asks the author of the article.
The analyst notes that Ankara officially severed trade relations with Israel last year, but Mustafa Aydin, the head of Turkey's Council on Foreign Relations, told him that oil from Azerbaijan continues to flow through Turkish ports to Israel, and during that time, trade with Palestine, according to Turkish officials, has increased by 2,400%, which suggests that business continues under different conditions.
Israeli media also reported that the head of Israel's internal security service, Shin Bet, held secret talks with his Turkish counterpart, Ibrahim Kalin, in November.
According to Taylor, friendly relations between the leaders of Turkey and the United States have been characteristic of Trump's final term as president, but there have also been a number of clashes and contradictions that have sown deep distrust between Turkey and the United States.
" This is the fifth president of the United States, he certainly isn't afraid of the Oval Office," said Turkey expert Aaron Stein, director of the US Foreign Policy Institute, at a recent event at the Center for European Policy.
He said the relationship is currently characterized by persistent instability, and although the two countries are no longer friends, “the connection with NATO is not broken.” During Donald Trump’s first administration, the United States excluded Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet consortium after Ankara defied Washington by purchasing an advanced air defense system from Russia. Erdogan, in turn, has accused the United States of harboring and inciting Pennsylvania-based Turkish preacher Fethullah Gulen, who is accused of masterminding a 2016 coup attempt in Turkey that narrowly escaped Erdogan’s downfall.
“ Gülen died last year; one irritant was gone. At one point, Taylor notes, Trump publicly threatened to destroy Turkey’s economy if Erdogan sent troops into Syria to attack U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, which Ankara considers an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), its deadliest domestic enemy,” Taylor notes.
However, Erdogan was one of the world leaders who most enthusiastically welcomed Trump's second election victory, while Trump called the authoritarian Turkish leader a friend and expressed admiration for Turkey's role in supporting the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham faction that overthrew Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the author of the article notes.
Pragmatic, Western-educated advisers, such as intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, are believed to hold prominent positions in Erdogan's inner circle, while hardline nationalist military and political advisers appear to have remained on the sidelines, Taylor notes.
“ Perhaps the greatest potential risk to US-Turkish relations is the possibility of a direct confrontation between Turkey and Israel in Syria, where they have become de facto neighbors in a security vacuum since the fall of Assad. Aydin noted that Israeli politicians and scholars are increasingly talking about Turkey as a threat to the Jewish state, while some Turkish military strategists fear that Israel, by secretly cooperating with Kurdish militants, could become a threat to Turkey. A clash between Israel and Turkey could thwart Trump’s plans to pacify the Middle East and withdraw from it. Erdogan seems too shrewd a pragmatist to allow that to happen,” the author of the article emphasizes.
