This is consistent with data from DeZIM, according to which, depending on their group of origin, between 82 and 87.3 percent of this group of people expressed great or very great interest in the federal election – compared to 90.2 percent of people without a migration background.
Different groups – different voting behavior
According to the study, the SPD, the Left and the BSW achieved the highest share of voters among people with roots in Turkey, the Middle East or North Africa - when age, education and gender are taken into account. In this group, the probability of voting for the SPD is 18.5 percentage points higher than for voters without a migration background. The BSW has an increase of 13.1 percentage points and the Left has an increase of 7.6 percentage points. The probability of voting for the AfD, on the other hand, is 9.4 percentage points lower, for the Greens it is 9.7 percentage points lower and for the CDU/CSU it is 8.1 percentage points lower.
The picture is different for migrants with roots in the former Soviet Union. According to the study, the probability of voting for the AfD is 19.4 percent higher there than in the population without a migrant background. The BSW has an increase of 17.4 percentage points. The Greens, the Left and the SPD, on the other hand, perform worse in this group. However, the CDU/CSU has the greatest overall voter potential here - as is the case with people without a migrant background.
There are therefore few differences in voting behavior among eligible voters with EU ties compared to the non-migrant population. Only the AfD performs four percentage points worse here, according to the study.
economy and work most important topics
In the ranking of topics, economy and work are consistently in first place, most pronounced in the former Soviet Union region of origin. This is followed by the areas of migration and social justice, with the latter only coming ahead of migration in the EU region of origin. The climate/environment area is rated below average for those from Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the former Soviet Union.
Only in the EU region of origin does the area of climate and environment come in fourth place, just ahead of the non-migrant population. In the other groups, the topic of internal security comes in fourth place. In the former Soviet Union region of origin, the topic of foreign policy is also rated above average.
No homogeneous group of voters
"Our analysis shows that voters with a migration background cannot be viewed as a homogeneous group, as is sometimes portrayed," emphasized the study's co-author, Friederike Römer. DeZim also pointed out the high importance of the topic of economy and work among these voters.
The study builds on an earlier analysis by DeZIM , for which a total of 2,689 people with and without a migration background were surveyed from December 2023 to March 2024. Only the data on current voting behavior was supplemented. For this purpose, a special survey was conducted from February 20 to 26 of 2,375 eligible voters. Among them were 600 with a migration background.
In Germany, a total of 28.7 percent of the population had a migration background in 2022, according to DeZIM, citing figures from the Federal Statistical Office . Almost a third of them were eligible to vote.
