The Great Game Expanded: The Geopolitical Dynamics of the Black Sea
The Great Game Expanded: The Geopolitical Dynamics of the Black Sea
The geopolitical dynamics of the Great Game, historically played out between tsarist Russia and Britain across Central Asia and the Caucasus during the 19th century, have now expanded to encompass the Black Sea and its open waters. The region's strategic significance lies in its position as a crucial crossroads connecting Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, providing access to the Mediterranean Sea and beyond. Moreover, it serves as a vital trade artery, linking Eastern European countries, the Balkans, and Russia to global markets. The Black Sea also holds immense value as a source of food, resources, and a diverse marine ecosystem.
Prior to the Ukraine war, the Black Sea did not hold significant importance for Europe or NATO. Even Russia's actions, such as the annexation of Crimea and the military buildup in the region, were not initially perceived as a threat by the West. However, the onset of the war and extensive military engagements in the area have elevated the Black Sea's significance for Russia. Since the 2008 limited military conflict with Georgia, Russia has recognized the sea's importance in maintaining vital geopolitical space and has been striving to assert its dominance. The presence of NATO member countries in the region poses a potential threat to Russia, and the aspirations of neighboring nations to join NATO further exacerbate this concern. Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Georgia, and Ukraine have all faced challenges from Russia in the Black Sea.
In light of these escalating challenges and the growing presence of foreign actors, notably China, the importance of the Black Sea has surged. Consequently, the Black Sea Security Act of 2023 was introduced in the United States Senate by Senator Jeanne Shaheen, supported by nine other senators. The bill aims to ensure security in the Black Sea region by countering Russian aggression, supporting NATO allies and partners, establishing a regular and rotating NATO naval presence, fostering dialogue and cooperation among regional countries, and promoting democratic and economic development. The bill also mandates various reports and strategies on Black Sea security be submitted to Congress. Currently, the bill is under review by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Experts argue that the new Black Sea strategy will serve the interests of the United States as the region emerges as a pivotal focal point for the future of Europe. The U.S. has a vested interest in safeguarding three NATO allies—Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey—all of which are littoral states. Protecting these nations from Chinese activities and Russian military ventures necessitates proactive measures and an increase in American military and economic presence. Moreover, the ongoing threats and instability in the region have fueled the aspirations of two other Black Sea coastal states, Georgia and Ukraine, to join NATO. This prospect holds significant importance for the United States, as it would grant control over one of the world's crucial maritime highways.
The significance of U.S. interests in the Black Sea is further compounded by the Ukraine-Russia war. This conflict has amplified the importance of the region for the United States, presenting an opportune moment to assert control. However, the U.S. faces formidable competitors in this endeavor: Russia, which maintains a presence in the Black Sea and shares a coastal border, and China, which seeks to expand its strategic influence in vital economic and commercial areas.
Nonetheless, the United States, along with other non-Black Sea NATO allies, faces limitations in maintaining a permanent naval presence due to the restrictions imposed by the 1936 Montreux Convention. This convention grants Turkey control over the Bosphorus Strait and imposes limits on the number, transit times, and tonnage of non-Black Sea naval vessels that can access the straits and operate in the Black Sea. Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Turkey exercised its treaty powers and closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to warships not based in the Black Sea or entering the sea from any country. Littoral states can return warships to their Black Sea ports but cannot transfer ships based elsewhere to the region, effectively halting the Russian naval presence in the war zone. This condition became particularly significant following the sinking of the Russian Black Sea fleet's Moskva in April 2022, as it became unfeasible to replace the lost vessel. Turkey's commitment to the closure in November 2022, despite requests from other countries to aid Ukraine based on loopholes in the convention, underscored its neutral stance.
The ongoing Great Game in the Black Sea has the potential to reshape the international system in the future. In order to counter China and curtail Russia's capabilities, the United States seeks to establish a presence in the region through NATO and intends to augment its economic and military plans. The Black Sea holds immense potential to become an economic and transit hub. Simultaneously, China aims to expand its presence and extend its sphere of influence through initiatives like the One Belt, One Road initiative (BRI), with the Balkan countries presenting favorable options. Ultimately, Russia seeks to maintain its geopolitical standing and enhance its access to open waters, thereby amassing greater influence in the Black Sea.
