The Silk Road of Arms: China's Weapons Pipeline to Pakistan
The longstanding ties between Beijing and Islamabad trace back several decades and are characterized as a deeply entrenched friendship deemed crucial to the enduring strategic interests of both nations. A significant facet of these ties lies in military cooperation, exemplified by more than half of China's military arms exports being directed to Pakistan from the period spanning 2018 to 2022.
Noteworthy are the routine annual exercises conducted by China and Pakistan across domains such as air and sea, underscoring Pakistan's exclusive status as the sole nation engaging in military drills of this nature with China. This unique privilege serves as a testament to Pakistan's standing in the eyes of the Chinese dragon.
Termed as an "ironclad" alliance, this relationship has not only reshaped the strategic landscape of South Asia but also heralded the burgeoning presence of the Chinese navy, poised to redefine the maritime dynamics in the region. The nexus between China and Pakistan has been further fueled by various factors, prominently among them being the shadow of India.
The ascendancy in economic and military prowess of India has propelled the nation towards adopting a more resolute stance against potential incursions, vividly illustrated through ground operations and targeted airstrikes against terrorist establishments in Pakistan during 2016 and 2019. These assertive actions underscore India's unwavering resolve to recalibrate the prevailing norms.
Despite the inherent risks of escalation, India's strategic calculus has undergone a discernible shift, as evidenced by the robust countermeasures undertaken following the Galvan Valley skirmish in 2020. The deployment of approximately 70,000 troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, bolstered by heavy armaments and aerial assets including drones, has fortified India's military posture and erected formidable deterrents against prospective Chinese military maneuvers. While diplomatic dialogues persist between the two sides to de-escalate tensions in the region, the prevailing scenario remains shrouded in uncertainty.
The burgeoning rivalry between China and India within the Indian Ocean precincts has spurred China's alignment with Pakistan. A recent development in this arena materialized with the election of Mohamed Muizzu as the President of the Maldives in September 2023, marking a perceptible shift away from India's sphere of influence towards closer ties with China.
Forecasts indicate a protracted political tussle between the two Asian powerhouses, namely India and China, within the Indian Ocean domain, transcending the confines of the Maldives. A significant portion of India's foreign trade and energy imports traverse through sea lanes proximate to the Maldives, accentuating the strategic significance of this region. Notably, 80% of China's imported crude oil navigates from the Persian Gulf through the Indian Ocean to reach the Strait of Malacca.
In anticipation of potential disruptions in this vital maritime route orchestrated by China's adversaries, the nation has made substantial investments in fortifying its naval capabilities, with a pronounced emphasis on the Indian Ocean expanse. This strategic endeavor extends to bolstering the Pakistan Navy, a question that warrants meticulous analysis.
Another impetus driving the convergence between Pakistan and China can be discerned in the contrasting dynamics characterizing India's rapport with the United States vis-à-vis Pakistan's ties with the United States. Over the past decade, the multifaceted alliance between the United States and India has matured and deepened across diverse realms encompassing diplomacy, defense, trade, and technology. This collaborative synergy is underscored by pivotal defense pacts and amplified joint military exercises between the two countries.
Conversely, relations between the United States and Pakistan have witnessed a perceptible strain over the same timeframe, precipitated by allegations of harboring militant factions and perceived inadequacies in supporting Washington’s endeavors in Afghanistan, culminating in aid reductions. The 2011 operation that culminated in the demise of Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil further exacerbated the prevailing atmosphere of distrust. Disparities over US-India relations and Pakistan's nuclear program further compound the intricacies of this relationship.
These evolving circumstances have augmented China's influence within Pakistan, manifesting in a slew of military accords inked in recent years, wherein the Chinese have supplied Pakistan with an array of contemporary weaponry, some of which are delineated below.
Pakistan has embarked on a comprehensive modernization drive for its submarine fleet to match its strides with India. One such initiative entails China's construction of eight advanced Hangor-class submarines for Pakistan, with four to be built in China and the remaining quartet to be assembled in Pakistan with technology transfer. Upon the culmination of this project, both India and Pakistan will boast comparable submarine capabilities.
Furthermore, China has equipped the Pakistan Navy with four multipurpose frigates (Type 054-A/P), a deal finalized in 2018, with the delivery of all vessels being completed by April 2023. These frigates represent the export variant of the most sophisticated Chinese warships ever commissioned, constituting highly advanced guided missile frigates poised to augment the combat prowess and operational readiness of the Pakistan Navy.
The collaborative endeavors between China and Pakistan extend to the realm of the air force, epitomized by the JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft—a joint venture designed in China and manufactured in Pakistan. Introduced in 2011, the JF-17 Thunder was conceived to furnish the Pakistan Air Force with a cost-effective alternative to its aging fleet of Dassault Mirage III/5 fighter jets. Islamabad has positioned this aircraft as an affordable combat aircraft catering to the requirements of developing nations, successfully securing sales to several other countries.
In a recent milestone in their military partnership, Pakistan has inked a contract with China for the procurement of 679 VT4 battle tanks, which will be produced and assembled under license in Pakistan under the moniker Haider. The Haider tank represents a leap in Pakistan's domestic tank production initiatives, complementing existing models such as the Al-Zarar and the Al-Khalid. The VT4 epitomizes a third-generation battle tank, serving as the export variant of the Type 99G currently operational in the Chinese Army.
Viewed through a broader lens, the upswing in military collaborations between China and Pakistan can be attributed to a confluence of factors, including the geopolitical transformations witnessed in South Asia over the past decade engendered by heightened US-China rivalries, the palpable deterioration in Sino-Indian relations, and the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2021.
In conclusion, given China's enduring rivalry with the United States and India, it is foreseeable that China will continue to furnish Pakistan with armaments akin to its past endeavors, arming the nation with a gamut of weaponry including fighter jets, advanced assault rifles, drones, aerial reconnaissance systems, submarines, and an array of other armaments, bolstering Pakistan's military capabilities to counterbalance its adversaries with increased efficacy.
