Trump's Return: The Final Break in France-USA Ties?

By: A. Mahdavi

Donald Trump’s prospective return to the White House presents not just a profound challenge for the United States but a seismic shift for France and the European Union. The legacy of his first presidency marked by a flagrant disregard for multilateralism an embrace of aggressive nationalism and a transactional approach to international relations has left deep scars on the global order.

For France under President Emmanuel Macron this return signals a defining moment—an opportunity to reshape its foreign policy and recalibrate its role in a world that is gradually turning its back on American hegemony.

Trump's initial tenure was characterized by an uncompromising stance on alliances and international agreements which while rooted in his businesslike approach to foreign relations revealed a broader disdain for long-established norms. Macron in a rare attempt at diplomacy sought to navigate this turbulent terrain by emphasizing shared interests with Washington particularly in the areas of counterterrorism and economic ties. However; Trump's unilateral withdrawal from pivotal agreements like the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord irreparably fractured Franco-American relations. In the wake of trade disputes including the imposition of tariffs on European goods; Macron found himself compelled to advocate for greater European unity and independence from U.S. influence.

With Trump poised to reoccupy the Oval Office his brand of belligerent nationalism and his antagonism toward multilateral institutions are certain to exacerbate these tensions. Macron acutely aware of the shifting global power dynamics has articulated a vision of European strategic autonomy—an independent Europe capable of defending its own interests without being tethered to Washington. This ambition has been fueled in no small part by Trump's vocal disdain for NATO and his demands that European nations bear a larger share of the defense burden. Consequently; Macron's vision of a militarily self-sufficient Europe will likely result in deeper investments in defense technologies including joint initiatives with Germany such as the Next Generation Combat Aircraft System (FCAS) and an accelerated push for the European Defense Fund. Moreover; Europe’s pursuit of technological independence from U.S. tech giants and a more assertive role for the euro in global finance will gain new momentum under Macron's leadership.

Public opinion in France which has long viewed Trump with disdain remains overwhelmingly negative. Polls consistently show that approximately 60 percent of the French population holds an unfavorable view of the U.S. president. His first term's policies—from withdrawing from global climate accords to antagonizing allies with unpredictable trade tactics—have left a lasting legacy of distrust and discontent. Macron keenly attuned to the prevailing public sentiment is poised to adopt a firmer stance against Trump’s policies in his second term. Macron’s conspicuous absence from Trump’s inauguration in 2017 served as a symbolic rebuke a deliberate gesture signaling France's readiness to act independently and assert its interests on the global stage. The message was clear: France would not kowtow to Washington’s whims.

This shift toward European strategic autonomy extends beyond military matters into broader geopolitical and environmental concerns. Macron is likely to emphasize Europe’s leadership in multilateral institutions such as the United Nations and the Group of Seven positioning the continent as a counterweight to an increasingly isolationist United States. A renewed commitment to green energy and climate action will stand in stark contrast to Trump's climate-denying rhetoric reinforcing Macron's vision of an energy-independent and environmentally responsible Europe. France’s determination to strengthen its leadership in renewable energy and sustainable development will directly challenge Trump’s regressive policies which have only exacerbated global environmental crises.

The war in Ukraine will emerge as a crucial battleground for Franco-American relations in the event of a second Trump term. Trump’s skepticism regarding long-term U.S. support for Ukraine coupled with his controversial suggestion that European nations should assume greater responsibility in the conflict stands in stark opposition to France’s unwavering support for Kyiv. Macron has consistently advocated for robust military and diplomatic aid to Ukraine and any shift in U.S. policy toward a more conciliatory stance with Russia could drive a wedge between the U.S. and France further eroding the foundation of NATO and transatlantic solidarity.

Ultimately the central challenge for Macron and France will be to navigate this period of uncertainty by recalibrating its foreign policy—balancing the necessity of cooperation with the United States against the imperative to assert its strategic autonomy. The era of European subservience to U.S. leadership appears to be drawing to a close and Macron’s ambition to guide Europe towards a more independent and multipolar future will be central to defining the continent’s role in a new world order.

The likely ramifications of a second Trump presidency for transatlantic relations will be profound. With the U.S. stepping back from its global leadership role Europe led by France may well seize the opportunity to step into the void. The coming years may mark a turning point in European history one where the continent asserts itself not merely as a loyal ally of the United States but as a global power in its own right. France’s ability to forge this path—one that both challenges the U.S. and aligns with European interests—will determine whether the EU can finally break free from its historical dependence on Washington. Ironically it is the very presidency that sought to undermine European unity that may ultimately catalyze its realization helping to birth a new more autonomous and multipolar world order.