Turkey's Regional Ambitions: A Risky Gamble in Syria

Political scholar Saadullah Zarei offered a critical prism through which Turkey's engagement in Syria may be seen, labeling it as a strategic but unstable endeavor. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan especially, Zarei argues Turkey's actions seek to gain control over Syrian areas including Aleppo and Idlib, so establishing a semi-autonomous government similar to that of Azerbaijan's Nakhichevan province.

Although Erdogan's strategy could theoretically improve Turkey's regional reputation, its actual execution raises serious concerns. As Zarei notes, funding what he calls "an already failed project" could eventually compromise Erdogan's aspirations and produce little except more regional unrest.

Nakhichevan Parallel: Goals and Restraints
Turkey's long-standing approach of geographical influence is reflected in its desire in Syria to establish a "Nakhichevan-style" government. With a proxy presence this kind of arrangement would give Ankara security along its southern border and leverage in more general regional politics. Still, this desire presents difficulties.

Unlike Nakhichevan, which values historical, legal, and cultural links to Azerbaijan, Turkey's possible Syrian enclave lacks the natural legitimacy or international acceptance required to support a workable governing structure. Still hotbeds of resistance and conflict, Idlib and Aleppo house several factions with conflicting agendas including Syrian government forces, Kurdish groups, and international players like Russia and Iran.

Gamble by Erdogan in an Unstable Landscape
Security considerations and expansionist aspirations have guided Erdogan's activities in Syria. Using its military presence in Syria to oppose Kurdish troops and the Assad government, Turkey has long supported opposition organizations in Idlib and Aleppo. Turkey has been at conflict with strong players in the area as a result, though, with this approach.

Key friend of Syria, Russia has often voiced unhappiness at Turkish invasions; Iran, another strong supporter of Assad, sees Turkey's engagement as a threat to its own dominance in Syria. Furthermore taxing Turkey's military and political resources are continuous conflicts involving Kurdish groups.

Furthermore rising is domestic criticism of Erdogan's Syria policies. Turkey's continuous financial crises have added to the economic pressures that have heightened criticism of foreign spending that seems to have few clear advantages.

Geopolitical consequences and historical background
One cannot grasp Turkey's engagement in Syria by itself. Part of Erdogan's larger plan, sometimes known as "Neo-Ottomanism," is restoring Turkey's historical impact in former Ottoman lands. This story alienates surrounding governments and complicates Turkey's ties to Western friends, even while it appeals to nationalist emotions at home.

Historically, without local legitimacy or international support, efforts at territorial expansion or influence via proxies in dangerous areas have proved unsustainable. Erdogan's vision for Aleppo and Idlib runs the danger of yet another episode in this history of excess.