Zelensky Warns that Lifting Sanctions on Russia Could Lead to Greater Risk of Invasion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly warned that easing sanctions on Russia could embolden Moscow and increase the risk of further military aggression. In an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan, broadcast on Tuesday, Zelensky argued that reducing the economic pressure on Russia would only make a second invasion more likely.

“If sanctions are lifted from the Russian Federation, I believe this will increase the risk of a second invasion,” Zelensky stated. His remarks are grounded in the belief that sanctions have had a significant impact on Russia’s economy and its ability to sustain military operations in Ukraine.

Sanctions and Economic Impact

Since the beginning of the conflict in 2022, a wide array of sanctions has been imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union, and other Western nations. These sanctions targeted key sectors of the Russian economy, including its financial, energy, and defense industries.

• Russian GDP Decline: Russia's economy contracted by approximately 4.5% in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF also projected that in 2023, the economy would face a 2.5% decline, despite efforts by the Russian government to mitigate the impact.
• Currency Devaluation: The Russian ruble saw a sharp depreciation against major currencies. The ruble's value against the U.S. dollar dropped by nearly 50% in the months following the invasion in 2022, although it later recovered slightly due to capital controls and the Russian government's intervention.
• Energy Sector Impact: Russia's oil and gas exports, which account for a significant portion of its revenue, were severely impacted. According to the European Commission, Russian exports of oil to the EU fell by more than 40% in 2023, and the country lost over $100 billion in revenue from energy exports.
• Military Spending: Sanctions also hindered Russia’s ability to procure critical military technology and supplies, affecting its defense capabilities. The cost of military operations has increased, with reports indicating that Russia’s defense spending surged by 50% in 2023 compared to pre-invasion levels.

The Risk of a Second Invasion

Zelensky’s concerns about lifting sanctions are tied to Russia's ability to rebuild its military and economic strength. The reduced revenue from oil and gas and the crippling effects on technology imports have placed significant strain on Russia’s war machine. However, easing sanctions would potentially allow Russia to recover some of these losses.

• Sanction Relief and Military Readiness: A significant portion of Russia's military supply chains, including advanced microchips and military-grade equipment, has been impacted by sanctions. These critical supplies are hard to replace, but if sanctions were lifted or relaxed, it could help Russia restore its military readiness.
• Second Invasion Risk: Analysts suggest that without sanctions, Russia could better fund its military operations, allowing the country to plan a second invasion, not just in Ukraine, but potentially in other neighboring countries. The Kremlin has been reportedly shifting its military strategies to make up for losses, and any sanction relief could give Russia the resources to launch new offensives.

Zelensky’s position underscores a broader fear in Ukraine and the international community: that any move to relax sanctions could embolden Russia’s aggressive behavior and pave the way for further territorial expansion.