Federal Government and Trump - Transatlantic friendship goodbye

The radical shift in US alliance policy under Donald Trump has caught the election campaigning parties in Germany off guard. The Western ties with the USA as the leading power are at the core of the Federal Republic's self-image. But there can no longer be an alliance with a US government that is pushing through authoritarian state restructuring in domestic policy and dismantling liberal democracy, while in foreign policy it is seeking proximity to the Russian dictatorship and is attacking the European states head-on.

It is probably a blessing for the German parties that the drastic nature of this development has only become clear so shortly before the federal election . Because none of the parties has yet found real answers to what all this means for Germany, for the options available to a future federal government, for its role within Europe and the world - to do so, they would first have to formulate these questions in all their complexity.

The only thing that seems certain is that the consequences that have been discussed since the possibility of a second Trump presidency arose must now finally be drawn. Europe must quickly establish a position of power independent of and even against Russia and the USA in order to offer Ukraine an alternative to bowing to the dictated peace now sought by Moscow and Washington . Let us not kid ourselves: the brutal, treacherous, arrogant and undignified manner in which Trump is now treating Ukraine will affect the whole of Europe tomorrow if it simply stands by and watches.

But Europe was already struggling to provide the necessary resources and build up structures when it was still believed that this would take one or two decades. The fact that the USA is pushing for Europe to do more for its own security is nothing new since Obama's time in office - but Obama was an ally who pushed for a fairer distribution of burdens, not an opponent. Now it is clear that there is not that much time. Nevertheless, Europe and German politics are still completely unprepared.

Defending democracy requires investment

Anyone who has listened to the CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, DC, which took place recently, understands the extent of the break. The CPAC, once a large-scale meeting for the exchange of conservative ideas, has for years been a radical propaganda event of the MAGA movement, also with the participation of European right-wing extremists. The most popular thing at CPAC now: Europe and Ukraine bashing with the participation of the US Vice President, crowned by a hate speech by the Alt-Right strategist Steve Bannon - complete with a Hitler salute.

There is no longer any room for sugarcoating this: anyone who wants to defend democracy against this ongoing overthrow from the right must act quickly and decisively: individually, but above all as a group. But this requires investments on an unprecedented scale and therefore decisions that none of the parties wanted to talk about during the election campaign. After all, we still need housing and funds for education, better social systems and secure pensions, climate protection and investments in the dilapidated infrastructure.

No time for constant arguments

But if military spending has to rise to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product, probably much faster than expected and expected, all of this will be difficult. Anyone who remembers the fundamental protests, some of them of the most underground kind, that were triggered by the planned cuts in agricultural diesel subsidies will have an idea of ​​the social and political upheavals that lie ahead.

Especially since after Sunday's election, the second strongest faction in the Bundestag will probably be a party that also has Trump and Putin's frontal attack on European liberal democracy as part of its program and is just waiting to demagogically stir up any discontent among the population. The basic structure of the expected next Bundestag has hardly changed for weeks - at least in the published opinion polls.

The only thing that remains unclear is whether Friedrich Merz needs one or two coalition partners to form a majority. That depends on how strong the Left becomes or whether BSW and the FDP even manage to get into the Bundestag. With the latest events on the world stage, one thing seems clear: there is no time for many months of tough coalition negotiations over the decimal point. But there is also no time for half-baked solutions and the subsequent constant dispute.