From Playing for NATO to Playing with Fire: An Analysis of Turkey's Behavior in Syria

According to Foreign Policy, the Turkish government, by supporting the armed opposition in Syria, has put itself in a situation beyond the country's capabilities, a situation that could lead to an escalation of regional tensions and a conflict between Turkey and the United States.

Many observers believe that Turkey is an obvious supporter of the US and NATO in the developments in Syria. Meanwhile, some agree with this opinion and emphasize that Turkey is also acting arbitrarily. In the same context, in a publication in Foreign Policy, Sinan Ceddi, a senior researcher for Turkish affairs at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, refers to the Turkish government's support for the armed opposition that dominated Syria under the leadership of the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, noting: "Turkey's actions demonstrate the self-confidence of the country's authorities and may carry the risk of double instability in the region."

Sinan Ceddi in this report, referring to the rapid progress of events, stated that, apparently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to dominate the political future of Syria. The analyst also says in an article recently published in the American analytical database 1945 that even the phrase “playing with fire” is not enough to describe Erdogan’s actions in Syria, and these actions should deeply worry the new Donald Trump administration in the United States, since Erdogan is likely to involve Turkey in solving the problems in Syria, and this could lead to the risk of increasing instability in the region.

Turkey's support for the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham According to the report, it appears that Ankara is preparing Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to seize power in Syria. Turkey presents the group as an organization that can establish a bureaucratic government, maintain law and order, and serve the demographically diverse Syrian people. That is why Ankara, as a member of the NATO alliance, has offered to support Hayat Tahrir al-Sham with weapons. According to this analyst, Erdogan wants to shape the group's mechanisms according to his views, controlling Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, in order to achieve his ultimate goal of destroying the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria.

The area of ​​Syrian territory is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Union Party and the Syrian Democratic Forces, known as QSD, a US-backed militant group that Ankara sees as a serious threat. Internal goals Sinan Ceddi argues that Erdogan's goal in increasing pressure on the Kurds is actually to distract Turkish citizens from the economic failures of his government.

Reports indicate that Turkey currently has between 16,000 and 18,000 troops in Syria and is mobilizing forces along the border near Kobani (Ain al-Arab) to break control of the SDP and SDF forces. In the end, Ceddi points to Erdogan’s self-confidence and emphasizes that his aggressive strategy carries great risks and is dangerous not only for Syria but for the entire region. Ignoring these risks could lead to long-term and irreversible consequences