Initial steps to end the war in Ukraine and an uncertain future

After Russia released an American prisoner, an action that the US President described as an effort to end the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he was ready to swap land with Russia. 

Russia released Marc Hilliard Fogel, an American prisoner, after a surprise visit to Moscow by US special envoy Steve Witkoff. Following Fogel's release, Donald Trump described Russia's decision as a step towards ending the war in Ukraine, saying: "Russia has treated us very well. I really hope this is the beginning of a relationship where we can end the war ."

In this context, Ukrainian President Zelensky has also shown a significant change in his position and said that his country would agree to a territorial exchange with Russia. He added that his country cannot receive security guarantees only from European partners, and that security guarantees without the United States cannot be realistic. Zelensky's statements came at a time when the Ukrainian President had previously insisted on not agreeing to cede even a single inch of territory to Russia . 

Despite these changes, there is still no clear vision for ending the war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine quickly during his election campaign, but it seems that leaders in Washington still lack a clear and negotiated plan for how to end the war.

In this regard, the Times newspaper explained: "Ukraine's future in the war with Russia has never been darker. Ukraine has not yet collapsed, but it has certainly suffered a major setback and been brought to its knees ." 

On the battlefield, Ukraine has been on the back foot in recent months. Reports indicate that Russian troops managed to take control of six more areas of Ukraine in 2024 than in 2023. By estimates, Ukraine has lost more than 20% of its territory.

The Economist* reported on this and said: "Ukrainian leaders are facing a shortage of volunteer soldiers and the situation will worsen, as many of these soldiers want to leave areas under Russian control in order to start negotiations and return to peace; in this context, one of the Ukrainian military's field commanders said: '70 percent of the army agrees not to fight to liberate territory taken by Russia."

On the other hand, the situation in Europe and Ukraine has become more complicated since the start of the Trump administration. European countries are now unable to send financial and military aid to Ukraine as they used to, and on the other hand, support from Washington to Ukraine is also in a state of flux . 

Jens Stoltenberg, the former NATO Secretary General who recently completed his duties, said: "We need a border to stop the fighting and of course this border in the ideal situation should include all the areas that Russia currently controls ." 

This situation comes at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reiterated his conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, including Ukraine's non-joining of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the lifting of all Western sanctions against Russia, and the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbas and Novorossiya regions.

Although Ukraine's announcement of its readiness to exchange land with Russia can now be seen as a sign of the country's readiness to initiate peace talks and efforts to end the war, there are still many challenges on this path, with Russia's requirement that Ukraine not join NATO being one of the most important issues .