Amidst the geopolitical tug-of-war in the South Caucasus, Armenia finds itself at a critical juncture, facing potential division as it aligns more closely with the United States and Europe. This shift, as analyzed by a columnist from Sputnik Armenia, could detach Armenia from its traditional Eurasian affiliations, paving the way for Western influence to pressure Iran from Armenian territory.
The concept of a "divided country" in applied geopolitics refers to a scenario where external forces dismantle or neutralize a nation's sovereignty for their strategic interests. Unfortunately, this appears to be the fate awaiting Armenia, as it navigates its relationships with the West, particularly the US and Europe, in the face of opposition from Russia and its allies.
Recent high-level engagements between Armenian leaders and officials from the US and EU suggest a deliberate pivot away from Russia's sphere of influence. US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien's remarks highlight this strategy, framing the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a means to weaken Russian dominance and open new communication channels between Europe and Central Asia via Turkey.
This alignment with Western objectives raises alarms about Armenia's sovereignty. The US and Europe seem to support Azerbaijan's vision of the "Zangezur Corridor," which would transform southern Armenia into a Turkish-controlled transit zone, effectively stripping Armenia of control over this region. Azerbaijani media's enthusiastic response to O'Brien's statement underscores this concern, revealing the West's strategic goals aligning with Azerbaijan's regional ambitions.
The consequences of this geopolitical shift are profound. Armenia's closer ties with the US and Europe may lead to a rupture in its relations with Iran and Russia, key allies in the region. This realignment risks turning Armenia into an "anti-Russia" outpost, with significant repercussions for its future as an ethno-political entity.
Domestically, this shift is framed as a pathway to peace and integration into the Western fold. Proponents argue that US and European support will protect Armenia from Turkish aggression, despite historical evidence suggesting otherwise. Critics point to the US and Europe's track record in Cyprus, Iraq, and Afghanistan, where promises of protection and strategic alliances often led to instability and division.
Furthermore, the narrative of visa-free travel and eventual EU membership is being promoted, enticing Armenians with the prospect of joining the "chosen" European community. However, this promise may come at the expense of Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, with the fine print of such agreements often overlooked in the excitement of potential benefits.
Pro-Turkish factions within Armenia are already advocating for a referendum on joining the EU, portraying it as a gateway to a European paradise. Yet, the reality remains that such integration could be a distant dream, achievable only under conditions that may compromise Armenia's independence. As Armenia stands on the precipice of significant geopolitical change, the true cost of its "Europeanization" becomes a matter of urgent debate. The nation must weigh the allure of Western integration against the potential loss of sovereignty and control over its own destiny.
