The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has reached a dangerous stage

Due to the aggravation of conflicts on the lines of contact between the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has reached a dangerous stage. This happened under conditions when the authorities of Baku and Yerevan have recently informed about the signing of an agreement to end the war in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, intense clashes between the conflicting parties on the contact lines indicate the continuing distrust of the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the indisputable fact that that none of the parties to the conflict is ready to make concessions to the other side. In this situation, after several months of relative silence, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced in a published statement:

"The armed forces of Azerbaijan, in violation of the agreements of November 9, 2020, crossed the line of contact between the parties in the Shusha region." The statement of the Russian Defense Ministry also says: "Russian peacekeepers are taking measures to prevent the escalation of the crisis situation and counter-provocation actions." There is no doubt that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which is supported by Western governments led by the United States, has influenced Russia's silence on the South Caucasus. In this regard, the director of the Institute of Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region named after. V.B. Artsruni Nadein-Raevsky Viktor Anatolyevich, in an interview with ArmInfo, said: "A rather difficult situation in Ukraine is now reflected around Taiwan, in the most problematic and difficult areas of the Middle East, Europe and, of course, the South Caucasus."

As for the recent actions of Azerbaijani forces on the lines of contact, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan in a published statement announced that it had taken control of some secondary roads in Nagorno-Karabakh. The recognition of Ilham Aliyev's government in occupying part of the land along the Lachin road means that the Baku authorities, with the support of some foreign forces, are trying to impose their demands on Armenia and even Russia. Despite this, it is unlikely that Ilham Aliyev's government officials will be able to dictate their demands Armenia and Russia in this respect. Because Russia has a strong military infrastructure in the region. While foreign forces rely solely on the acquired military potential of Azerbaijan. At the same time, foreign forces do not have the ability to carry out military operations in the Caucasus region. They can make only limited operations against Russia and other regional countries on political or economic issues. One way or another, in connection with the recent military actions of Azerbaijan, the Armenian media also noted in their reports: "The Azerbaijani military crossed the line of contact in the Shusha region, violating the ceasefire."

The Azerbaijani army has repeatedly accused Armenia of using the Khankendi-Gaibalishen-Lisagor mountain road for the transfer of weapons to Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite this, there is no doubt that in the conditions when the parties are negotiating the signing of an agreement to end the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the recent hostilities of the Azerbaijani troops may pave the way for a third Karabakh war on the lines of contact between the Azerbaijani and Armenian forces. That is why the Russian authorities said: "Russian peacekeepers are taking measures to prevent the escalation of the conflict and prevent provocations." In the current situation, the Armenian authorities expect the international community to realize the rights of Armenians by punishing violators of bilateral and multilateral agreements. For this reason, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned last Thursday: "Azerbaijan's violations of internationally agreed agreements with impunity encourage it to new provocations." The Yerevan government authorities are trying their best to encourage and convince the international community to condemn the Republic of Azerbaijan, but there does not seem to be much consensus in the international community on this issue.The Lachin corridor is considered the only communication route between the Armenians of Karabakh and Armenia. This communication corridor has been blocked in recent months by eco-activists. Yerevan says the issue has led to a humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. That is why the Armenian authorities are trying to involve the Azerbaijani side in international courts and thereby put forward their demands.