EU Defence Spending: Kubilius Calls for a Bold "Big Bang" Approach

Andrius Kubilius, the recently appointed European Commissioner for Defence, underlined in his first speech to the Security and Defence (SEDE) subcommittee of the European Parliament the pressing necessity of a dramatic change in EU military budget. Kubilius suggested drastic actions to close the security capability gaps on Europe and get ready for next crises since the present strategy is unable to handle the security issues on the continent.

Kubilius presented an aspirational vision based on a "big bang" significant rise in defense expenditure. He advocated the release of collective "defence bonds," a tactic evocative of the financial policies taken during the COVID-19 epidemic. The EU may finance its defence transformation by pooling resources and frontloading money from member states, therefore minimising borrowing and payback costs.

There are great stakes here. The defense commissioner projected that Europe will need €500 billion to create a shared air defense umbrella and extra €200 billion over the next ten years to upgrade infrastructure enabling quick military mobilization. These numbers expose a clear financial shortfall since they exceed the €10 billion set for defense in the EU's 2021–2027 multi-annual budget.

Kubilius underlined that a partial fix might come from recycling underused EU money, particularly cohesion grants and those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). He said the EU should simultaneously strengthen its defense sector and solve regional economic inequalities by using money meant for industrial growth in underdeveloped areas.

Traditionally designed to boost economic development in poor regions, cohesion money may be diverted to assist the defense sector, Kubilius argued as a critical sector for job creation and competitiveness. "We should not separate the defence industry from cohesion policy goals," he said MEPs, therefore presenting this strategy as a win-win for military and economic priorities.

Growing pressure on EU members to reach NATO's 2% GDP minimum defense expenditure—a goal many have historically struggled to meet—reflects the drive for higher defense expenditures. Talks inside NATO indicate that this barrier would soon climb in response to the pressing need to fill in capability exposed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Kubilius presented the theory that dedocating merely 0.1% to pay back collective borrowing could earn €20 billion yearly if EU member states raised their defence budgets to 3% of GDP. This, he said, would establish a viable financial structure for the long-term security requirements of the continent.

Kubilius's suggestions have difficulties, though. Particularly in view of different national agendas and economic inequalities, convincing all 27 member states to pool resources and agree on collective borrowing remains politically difficult. Furthermore, the redistribution of money from current EU projects can cause opposition from sectors and areas depending on these resources for non-defence projects.

Critics would also draw attention to the dangers of depending too much on debt financing, therefore alerting of possible long-term financial instability. Kubilius is relentless, stressing the need of a united and sufficiently funded European defense system to protect the bloc's geopolitical interests in a globe growing in volatility.

The plans of the commissioner coincide with a turning point. Rising geopolitical tensions and NATO's involvement in European security under continuous examination call for the EU to take more responsibility for its defense. Whether Kubilius's idea can overcome political opposition and provide the "big bang" Europe's defense industry requires remains to be seen. One thing is obvious: the way the EU funds defense will have a major impact on its security, sovereignty, and worldwide influence.